老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：26 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 04 月 11 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 04 月 19 日 18 時
93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10.5S.92E

霧峰追風者

ABIO10 PGTW 121100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/121100Z-121800ZAPR2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
OVER A POORLY ORGANIZED AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A RECENT
120204Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED SPARSE 15- TO 20-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A BROAD 20-25 KNOT WIND FIELD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST
93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC 14/0130Z提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 90.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 471
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUPPORTED BY ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INVEST 93S REMAINS IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

MFR14/06Z編號熱帶低壓第12號,初報上望中度熱帶風暴35KT

WTIO31 FMEE 140635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISIONCYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/12/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 87.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/04/2020 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 15/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/04/2020 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 16/04/2020 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 16/04/2020 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE: NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES: FT=CI=2.0+

老農民版夜神月

JTWC14/1500Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 87.7E TO 16.9S 82.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 87.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 90.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141101Z F-15 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. A 140303Z METOP-
A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AROUND A TIGHT LLCC
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND 15-20 KTS
TO THE NORTH. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, POTENTIALLY
REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 24 HOURS, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE UNDER UNFAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151500Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT14/1536Z風場掃描達標,JTWC14/1800Z升格26S,初報定強40KT,上望45KT

霧峰追風者

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141451APR2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 86.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 86.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 15.7S 84.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 16.5S 82.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.3S 81.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.9S 80.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 85.8E.
14APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
929 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
CONSOLIDATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WITH LOW
LEVEL BANDS SPIRALING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 141536Z ASCAT-A AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS,
SUPPORTING A 141731Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THE
SPIRAL BANDING TO GOOD EFFECT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ASCAT-A PASS,
WHICH SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS A GOOD DEAL HIGHER THAN
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 FROM PGTW AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T2.0 FROM FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (28 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 24. TC 26S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY,
PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE. AFTER TAU 24 HOWEVER, SHEAR BEGINS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
IN MAGNITUDE AND WILL DECAPITATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36 LEADING TO
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS MIXED, WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER, TAKING THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER TAU 12. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODEL PACKAGE ALL AGREE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND
152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 141500).////
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR06/06Z升格熱帶低壓12號(26S)為中度熱帶風暴，26S獲名Jeruto

FKIO20 FMEE 150630
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200415 /0630Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: JERUTO
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 15/0600Z S1549 E08432
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: WSW 10KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 15/1200Z S1622 E08352
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 33KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 15/1800Z S1658 E08310
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 16/0000Z S1739 E08223
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 16/0600Z S1812 E08139
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 30KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200415 /1200Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 150643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JERUTO)
2.A POSITION 2020/04/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 84.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/15 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/16 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/04/17 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2020/04/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+
DESPITE THE OBVIOUS INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER WIND SHEAR,
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE MANAGED TO RESIST CLOSE TO THE CENTER
OVER THE LAST 12 HRS. THE MW IMAGES OF THE NIGHT (2154Z AND 0112Z SSMIS
SWATH) ILLUSTRATE THIS AND ALSO REVEAL A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
CIRCULATION. 0330Z ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SWATH BOTH SHOW GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS ASYMETRIC
WIND DISTRIBUTION IS EXPLAINED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED BY A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH.
THE RSMC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE SCATT
DATA AS WELL AS WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (CIMSS ADT AND
SATCON). CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED JERUTO AT 06Z.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY,ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT THE RESIDUAL LOW TO EVACUATE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THE WINDOW OF FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IS CLOSING TONIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. FROM FRIDAY, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSOLVE WHILE
REMAINING STATIONARY OR SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH-WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY INHABITED AREAS.