jrchang5

風眼眼牆於17/06Z後已觸及斐濟瓦努阿島，預測巔峰上看澳式C2。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 170822 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 179.3E AT
170600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.3S 178.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.8S 175.9W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.6S 173.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.4S 169.9W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171400UTC.

老農民版夜神月

系統目前正影響斐濟,通過斐濟東方近海.FMS17/12Z升格澳式C2;
JTWC升格C1,定強65KT,並預測24H內將繼續增強

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 171355 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 178.9W AT
171200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 85 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 330 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION GOOD WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP ONTO SUPPOSED
LLCC. CONVECTIONS HAS INCREASED INVERTICAL RADIAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD
TOP COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SYSTEM STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEP
LAYER MEAN. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 400HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND OF ABOUT 0.9
WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.8S 176.5W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 21.6S 173.9W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 25.0S 170.9W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 29.3S 167.8W MOV SE AT 21 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
172000UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定17/21Z升格為澳式三級強烈熱帶氣旋(C3)，定強65kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 172234 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S
176.6W AT 172100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 85 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 330 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT  
                    
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT  
                          
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT  
                    
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION GOOD WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SYSTEM STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEP
LAYER MEAN. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 400HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN YIELDING A
DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180900 UTC 21.6S 174.1W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 182100 UTC 24.9S 171.3W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190900 UTC 29.3S 168.0W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 192100 UTC 34.1S 165.5W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180200UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18/06ZCI5.0,T4.0;17/18Z,18/00Z,18/06Z定強均為70KT,
FMS,JTWC均預測已達顛峰,將維持強度或逐漸減弱

TPPS10 PGTW 180607

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO)

B. 18/0550Z

C. 19.93S

D. 174.98W

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 4.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/0100Z  19.32S  176.07W  AMS2


   BERMEA

WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 175.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 175.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.3S 172.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 27.4S 168.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 32.2S 164.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 174.2W.
18JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF AN 180415Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PLACES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS FALLS BELOW THE
KNES/NFFN/PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90
KTS) BASED ON A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG
WITH THE RECENT METOP-B PASS SHOWING PEAK WINDS OF 45-49 KTS. OF
NOTE, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEGUN TO SHOW A WARMING OF CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO
INGEST SOME DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHERMORE, WIND SPEED SURFACE
OBSERVATION OF 35 KTS WAS RECORDED AT LUPEPAU'U, TONGA (NFTV) WHICH
IS LOCATED ABOUT 105 NM NORTHEAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). PAIRED WITH THE
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE POLAR FRONT JET TO
THE SOUTH, TC 08P IS CURRENTLY IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR TERM,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TC 08P TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, COOLING
SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, SLOWLY AT FIRST AND THEN MORE
RAPIDLY. BY TAU 24, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS TC 08P INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH
ETT COMPLETION BY TAU 36. DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN