老農民版夜神月

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：04 F( 08 P )
名稱：Tino

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 12 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2020 年 01 月 16 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 20 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：70 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：967 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93P INVEST 200112 0000 12.0S 162.5E SHEM 15 1010


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

FMS編號TD04F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 120928 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S
163.9E AT 120900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC12/2100Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 121805Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC14/0600Z提升評級為Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 167.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140201Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

(為什麼圖片上標註的是92S..?)

jrchang5

JTWC 15/21Z發布TCFA。

WTPS21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 172.1E TO 14.6S 178.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 152030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 170.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 151726Z 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151024Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
FAVORABLE SST, HOWEVER VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.//
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jrchang5

FMS判定16/15Z升格為澳式一級熱帶氣旋，命名Tino，逐漸逼近斐濟。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 161653 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 177.1E AT
161500 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.  
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE EAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.6/0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170300 UTC 16.1S 179.4E MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171500 UTC 18.7S 178.4W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180300 UTC 21.4S 176.1W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181500 UTC 24.2S 173.3W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
162000UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC修正16/12Z強度為35KT,已達TC標準,即將升格08P

93P INVEST 200116 1200 12.7S 176.9E SHEM 35 992

jrchang5

JTWC 16/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 08P首報，定強40kts。

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152051ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 177.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 177.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 16.0S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.3S 177.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.7S 175.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.4S 173.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 30.6S 165.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 178.3E.
16JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. EIR ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 161714Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE BUT CLEARLY
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW
WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER AND NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF 29C
REMAIN FAVORABLE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A RELATIVELY SIMPLE STEERING PATTERN WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 WITH A 40-45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 145NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C) AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, SST VALUES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
(20C) AND VWS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS (30-40 KNOTS), WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 08P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72
AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152100).//
NNNN