老農民版夜神月

NHC展望再提升至80%/90%

1. A low pressure system located less than 200 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph, parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

霧峰追風者

展望提升至90%，有機會升格。

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
parallel to and just offshore of the coast of Mexico.  This system
could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.  Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已提升至將近100%,大概今晚或明晨就會升格,就看是升TD還是直接升TS了

1. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a
tropical cyclone is developing several hundred miles south-southeast
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this trend
continues, then advisories will be initiated later this morning for
a tropical depression or tropical storm. This system could produce
locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern
Mexico during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

t02436

升格10E，巔峰上望65節。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211451
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance
that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several
days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early
morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with
peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the
disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has
most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories
are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being
steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from
northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model
guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this
ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression.
This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is
then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder
of the forecast period.

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30
C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly
shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady
strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal
hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the
model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on
the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect
for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will
move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while
undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken
and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical
cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

NHC於21/15Z一報中正式升格95E為TD.TEN-E,並預測沿著墨西哥西岸北上,巔峰65節

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 211449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

霧峰追風者

命名"Ivo"，巔峰上望70KT。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Corrected storm ID in header block

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

過去兩天,隨著Ivo的北上,環境也逐漸變得不利於其發展,系統逐步衰弱.NHC25/09Z報,判定Ivo降格為TD

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 250838
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI