1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 92.0W TO 12.9N 97.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 92.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3N 92.4W, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA,
MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A
191126Z F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. 95E IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E
WILL TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
NNNN
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the southern coast
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance
could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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