老農民版夜神月

JTWC目前則將Gelena評為亞熱帶氣旋,並於00Z一報發出Final Warning

JTWC/13S/#37/02-15 00Z Final Warning
WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037     
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 29.3S 88.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 88.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 31.0S 90.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY.
ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTION DEPICTS A COLD TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE (USING
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD) OF ST2.5 (35 TO 40 KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 1
TO 2 DAYS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14
FEET.

老農民版夜神月

MFR1506Z發出對Gelena的最後一次報告,並預測12小時內仍維持為後熱帶低壓

WTIO30 FMEE 150611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/9/20182019
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GELENA)
2.A POSITION 2019/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 89.8 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 300 SW: NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/15 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/02/16 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 93.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2019/02/16 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/02/17 06 UTC: 36.5 S / 96.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ONLY A LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS VISIBLE ON THE SAT IMAGERY. AN ASCAT SWATH
PARTLY COVERED THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SHOWED 20-KT WINDS. THE
MODEL ANALYSIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DATA AND SUGGEST 30-KT
MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
EX-GELENA'S EXTRATROPICALISATION IS ONGOING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS
BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.A
STILL GUIDED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST, EX-GELENA
KEEPS ON GOING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD AT A QUICK PACE. IT SHOULD CROSS THE
90TH MERIDIAN SHORTLY. TODAY, THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, EX-GELENA WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE TO THE SOUTH-EAST
TOMORROW.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY LA REUNION RSMC.