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JTWC 00Z首報，上望80kts。
WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HABROR HI//051352ZFEB19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.2S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.8S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052202Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
BASED ON A FMEE FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (36 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN TO TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
PUSH TC 13S ONTO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36,
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BY TAU 48, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS EXCEPT NAVGEM
SUPPORTING THE TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING SOUTH WITHIN 24 HOURS
AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD. NAVGEM INDICATES A BROAD TURN TO THE
EAST THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
051400).//
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