Meow

最後警報發佈近12天後，再次發佈TCFA。

WTPN21 PGTW 180700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 139.8E TO 8.1N 128.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 138.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.6N 138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 229
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATON CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 180206Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. A 180033Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NUMEROUS 15-
20 KNOT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KT) VWS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER
MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190700Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC於01190700Z再度取消TCFA，並降評為Medium。

WTPN21 PGTW 190700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (RMNTS 01W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180651Z JAN 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
180700)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 138.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190011Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY MODERATE (10-20KTS) AND INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, INSTEAD REMAINING A LOOSE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JMA 升格為熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 132E WNW 10 KT.

周子堯@FB

一波三折的TD-01W(90W)，稍微整理一下XD
距強冷空氣到達倒數54hr...@@

JTWC 0103 01Z 編號90W
JTWC 0103 03Z 評級Low
JTWC 0103 05Z 評級Medium
JTWC 0104 05Z 發布TCFA
JTWC 0104 18Z 編號TD-01W
JTWC 0106 15Z 發布Final warning
JTWC 0107 11Z 降評Medium
JMA  0110 18Z 判定LPA
JTWC 0110 20Z 降評Low
JMA  0111 12Z 撤除LPA
JTWC 0112 05Z 評級Medium
JMA  0114 06Z 判定LPA
JMA  0116 00Z 撤除LPA
JMA  0116 06Z 判定LPA
JTWC 0118 07Z 發布TCFA
JTWC 0119 07Z 降評Medium
JMA  0119 06Z 升格T.D

霧峰追風者

JMA 發布〔W〕

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 08.7N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Meow

仍未登陸。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 11.6N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成31年01月21日22時05分 発表

<21日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
東経 126度00分(126.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<22日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度35分(14.6度)
東経 124度25分(124.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

Meow

猝不及防的GW……

熱帯低気圧
平成31年01月21日22時05分 発表

<21日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
東経 126度00分(126.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<22日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度35分(14.6度)
東経 124度25分(124.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)