周子堯@FB

JTWC 12Z降評為"Medium。
後續是否發展?數值看法兩極

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 01W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.6N 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070619Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
SOME BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 01W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 01W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, REMAINING
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Meow

JTWC不承認自己幹過的，形成延後到7日開始，6日以前的01W不存在。

WP, 01, 2019010700,   , BEST,   0,  27N, 1741E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  215,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE,  ,
WP, 01, 2019010706,   , BEST,   0,  28N, 1735E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  215,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010712,   , BEST,   0,  29N, 1729E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  140,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010718,   , BEST,   0,  31N, 1722E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  130,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,
WP, 01, 2019010800,   , BEST,   0,  34N, 1717E,  20, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  130,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,

zjk369

JMA再次編號擾動 而JTWC降格LOW

ben811018

緯度很低，發展不易
前方還有副高壓擋著
一路壓到菲律賓QQ~

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z再次評級Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 84
NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) COVERED BY A LARGE
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS),
AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD WITH CONSISTENT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ben811018

依然維持廣泛低壓帶
預計朝菲律賓東南方海域前進
過幾天後有進一步發展的趨勢~
持續觀察囉!~

老農民版夜神月

第二度被降評為Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 115
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140448Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC15/00Z再升Medium

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 142321Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.