Meow

A CYCLONIC STORM “PABUK” LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 3RD JANUARY 2019 NEAR LATTITUDE 6.00N LONITUDE 105.00E ABOUT 1500 KM EASTSOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO ANDAMAN SEA  AROUND FORENOON OF 5TH JAUNARY 2019. THEREAFTER,IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDAMAN ISLANDS AROUND 6TH JANUARY EVENING /NIGHT AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY .THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER DURING 7-8 JANUARY 2019.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODALS SUGGEST THAT, AFTER THE EMERGENCE OF THE CYCLONIC STORM INTO ANADAMAN SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INITIALLY NORTWESTWARDS ACROSS ANDAMAN ISLANDS ON 6TH JANUARY, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST AND WEAEN GRADUALLY DURING 7-8TH JANUARY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF MALAY PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, IT WILL LIE IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS ON 7TH AND 8TH. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE 29-30 DEG. C OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND 27-28 DEG. C OVER THE ADJOINING BAY OF BENGAL. THUS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INTO ANDAMAN SEA IT WILL EXPERIENCE WARMER SEA AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (100-120 KJ PER CM2). HOWEVER, IT WILL BE GRADUALLY UNFAVOURABLE OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL LEADING TO WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SEA AREA. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES OVER PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER ANDAMAN SEA.

krichard2011

泰國TMD雷達已經看的到中心了中心還滿清楚的
不過受限於風切有點強 要近岸增強難度可能不低

Meow

18Z正式進入泰國灣，成為2004年梅花以來首個泰國灣熱帶風暴。

台風第1号 (パブーク)
平成31年01月04日03時45分 発表

<04日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 7度10分(7.2度)
東経 103度05分(103.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 390km(210NM)
南東側 220km(120NM)

<04日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 8度20分(8.3度)
東経 101度20分(101.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        60km(30NM)

<05日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        タイ
予報円の中心        北緯 8度55分(8.9度)
東経 99度30分(99.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<06日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ベンガル湾
予報円の中心        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 96度10分(96.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        180km(95NM)

<07日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ベンガル湾
予報円の中心        北緯 11度50分(11.8度)
東経 92度25分(92.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)

霧峰追風者

JTWC 分析3.5，即將登陸泰國。

TPPN11 PGTW 032141
A. TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK)
B. 03/2100Z
C. 7.95N
D. 101.94E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINT OF 0.5 T NUMBER DEVELOPMENT OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
VEERKAMP

azure1989

新聞說：帕布是西太平洋年度第二早生成的颱風，1979年的「艾麗絲」（Alice），於1月1日上午8點就生成，是西太平洋年度最早生成的颱風。http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/2658851

Meow

TMD宣布登陸

At 12.45 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” has made landfall over Pak Phanang, Nakhon Si thammarat. At latitude 8.2 degree north, longitude 100.2 degree east. Maximum sustained wind is 75 km/hr. The storm was moving northwest at a speed of 18 km/hr. It is expected to downgrade to be tropical depression “PABUK” and It will prevail over Surat Thani soon. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods.

jrchang5

各機構對於中心定位看法歧異。不過無論如何，由於所處環境在過去這段期間風切趨勢是降低的，低層中心裸露的情形已明顯改善。
CWB：

JMA：
JTWC：

風切趨勢圖：



動態雲圖：

Meow

JMA宣布不再發報，之後交由RSMC新德里（IMD）發報。

WTJP21 RJTD 041200

WARNING 041200.

WARNING VALID 051200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA

AT 08.2N 100.3E THAILAND MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 08.5N 098.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 09.0N 097.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 11.3N 093.2E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 13.7N 090.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.



THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM RSMC TOKYO ON THIS SYSTEM. THE

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC NEW DELHI UNLESS RE-ENTRY OR

SLOW-DOWN OCCURS.



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=