簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-1-2 06:12
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JTWC於0118Z終於亦升格為TS。目前所處環境垂直風切稍降，高層極向流出良好，但位於深對流東緣的低層環流中心仍有部分裸露，JTWC認為其未來的發展仍受垂直風切所限，巔峰風速暫時上看45kts。
WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) WHICH DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATING 35 KNOTS AROUND THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT, NOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 36W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MODERATE VWS, WITH A PEAK NEAR
45 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 72. SPREAD AMONG
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS IS WITHIN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN INCREASES AS SOME MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS,
BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR PRIOR TO CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA, WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER TS 36W ENTERS THE BAY OF BENGAL.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 36W WILL BEGIN TO CURVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN PABUK TO BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 120. WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MEMBERS CLUSTERED
NEAR THE JTWC FORECAST, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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