周子堯@FB

GFS和EC數值逐漸支持後其發展，並預估10後來到南海一帶
近期渦旋逐漸加深，風切減弱，環境轉佳~

t02436

JMA 12Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 151E WEST 10 KT.

周子堯@FB

JTWC持續維持"Medium"評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 150.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 204
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 150316Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98C IN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WESTERN TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER DIFFER IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於11171430Z再度發布TCFA.

WTPN21 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 140.1E TO 8.1N 130.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
141.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 730NM EAST OF
DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 171224Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PERSISTENT MASS OF
CONVECTION ABOVE A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC. DESPITE SOME HIGH (25-30
KTS) VWS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WESTWARD UL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH EXHAUST TO OFFSET THE SHEAR. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ALL PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHERS, CALLING FOR AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181430Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JMA亦隨後於11171930Z發布GW.

熱帯低気圧
平成30年11月18日04時30分 発表

<18日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度50分(6.8度)
東経 136度05分(136.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<19日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 6度30分(6.5度)
東経 134度00分(134.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

周子堯@FB

現時渦度已泛白，稍早局部掃到30kt風速，惟所處環境稍有風切，LLCC有裸露情況，預估晚間就有機會獲得命名~

周子堯@FB

JTWC 18/09Z升格33W，對流爆發，首報上看60kt

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 180713Z NOAA-19 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) SHOWING STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.     
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR.
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 260NM AT TAU 120,
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

zjk369

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 01
• Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 18 November 2018
• Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 19 November 2018
• Current Status and Outlook
• Tropical Depression (TD) 33W [SAMUEL] newly-formed over the southeastern part of the South Philippine Sea, has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this afternoon.  This system is now posing a threat to Northeastern Mindanao-Visayas-Sulu-Palawan Area…could traverse these areas beginning Tuesday afternoon (Nov 20) through Wednesday evening (Nov 21).
• 24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will continue to intensify while moving west-northwest towards the central part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 15 km/hr.  It could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow, Monday afternoon.
• This depression is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.  It will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the Bicol and Quezon Provinces beginning Monday evening.
• Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 18…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southeasternmost part of the South Philippine Sea (near 6.4°N 133.7°E), about 825 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 884 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur.
• How strong is it?
• Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
• Past Movement (06 hrs) Westward @ 22 kph, towards the Central Part of the South Philippine Sea.
• Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) ::  Along the Eastern part of Surigao Del Sur, between 10 AM to 12 PM local time on Tuesday, Nov 20 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
• What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
• >> Caraga Region, Northern Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, & Eastern Visayas – beginning Monday (Nov 19).
• >> Central and Western Visayas, Zamboanga Del Norte, Sulu Archipelago, & Palawan – beginning Tuesday (Nov 20).
• Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
• >> None.
• Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None.
• +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
• 4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves WNW-ward across the central portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 515 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Nov 19: 7.3°N 130.9°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Northern Agusan Del Norte, after making landfall over the Town of Cortes, Surigao Del Sur…reaches Severe Tropical Storm (TS) classification…about 39 km north of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte [2PM Nov 20: 9.3°N 125.5°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Santa Teresita, Palawan as it weakens slightly while turning westward traversing Northern Palawan…about 116 km east-northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 21: 10.5°N 119.7°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the southwestern border of the PAR, as it re-intensifies while moving west-northwest towards the South China Sea…about 502 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 22: 11.3°N 114.4°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.
• **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
• Other Storm Info > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)
• > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
• Additional Information Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun November 18, 2018
• Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.4°N Lat 133.7°E Lon
• Distance 1: 879 km East of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
• Distance 2: 915 km ENE of Davao City, Davao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 943 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
• Distance 4: 949 km ESE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
• Distance 5: 1653 km ESE of Metro Manila, PH
• 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 7.3°N 130.9°E (TS)
• 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.3°N 125.5°E (STS)
• 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.5°N 119.7°E (STS)
• 96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 114.4°E (STS)