1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure is
located about 1000 miles south of Honolulu. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible, while it slowly
moves westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
179.4E, APPROXIMATELY 702 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 061857Z SSMIS F-17 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 060929Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES
TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
A SMALL CHANNEL OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST AND SLIGHTLY DEVELOP. GFS, AS AN OUTLIER,
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
今天06Z提升到Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 100.7E, APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 072349Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 071449Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALED 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH MAX WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN 36-60 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE
BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 090130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 174.9E TO 9.6N 167.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 174.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
177.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST
OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 082202Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THAT THE LLCC IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE LLCC. 98C IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND HAS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 98C TRACKING WEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100130Z.//
另JMA亦於今（9）日0000Z升格為TD.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 08N 176E WEST 10 KT.
WTPN21 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 090130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 177.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) AS NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. A 092140Z MHS
METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 98C HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY. A 100102Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT THE LLC IS BREAKING UP INTO TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
98C IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST AND WILL REMAIN JUST UNDERNEATH THE WARNING
THRESHOLD. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT PREDICT ANY INTENSIFICATION TO
ABOVE THE WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 170.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY
157 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 110202Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY
EXPOSED, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH NO DEFINED
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) REMAIN
FAVORABLE IN THE SURROUNDING AREA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY OVER THE 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
今天06Z維持Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 161.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY
755 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 122323Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A MASS OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. VWS IS LOW (10-15KTS) WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE
WARM (28-30C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98C WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER NAVGEM IS THE ONLY MODEL DEPICTING
SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
提升卡
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