dog327

中心結構是很紮實的

有一定的機率會成為跨入西太平洋的颶風

目前路徑變化不大隨著高壓邊緣的引導方向前進

傳奇@天氣人

未來將跑來西太日本附近

t02436

扎實的小鋼砲，NHC在03Z最後一報評價120節，09Z開始由CPHC發報。
預計三天後自夏威夷南方通過，到西經170度仍未超過20N，強度仍有85節。

225
WTPZ45 KNHC 060233
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special
advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the
115-125 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 120 kt.  The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area
of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60
h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the
forecast period.  There are two caveats to this forecast, however.
The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and
the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could
occur from 96-120 h.  Second, the environment of light easterly
shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to
evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more
intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating.

The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models
have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12.  The
subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it
west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next
24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new
forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the
Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the
Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian
Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For
additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in
Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast
Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Hector.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning
at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO,
and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

周子堯@FB

進入中太，CPHC接手，預計從今晚開始受乾空氣影響會開始減弱，預計惡劣環境將持續到周五，
周六以後環境可望稍微好一點~

WTPA41 PHFO 060913
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 05 2018

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector remains impressive
this evening, with a well defined eye surrounded by a large ring of
-70 to -80 degree Celsius cloud tops. The latest subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB came in at 6.0 (115
knots), while the Advanced Dvorak technique yielded 6.6 (130
knots). Given that Hector's satellite presentation has changed
little since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at
120 knots which is more or less a blend of the available intensity
estimates. Hector has continued to track westward and has picked up
a little speed since the previous advisory. The initial motion of
Hector is set at 280/13 kt.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered and brings
Hector just north of due west over the next 36 to 48 hours due to a
weakness in the subtropical ridge just to the northeast of the
Hawaiian islands. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the Hawaiian Island chain, and
this should result in the track of Hector moving due westward from
48 to 120 hours. The new official forecast track is very close to
the model consensus and nearly identical to the previous official
forecast.

Hector will remain in favorable low shear environment through the
forecast period, but there are some factors that should lead to
gradual weakening beyond 24 hours. The hurricane will be traveling
over marginal sea surface temperatures around 27C for the next few
days, before the SSTs increase to around 28C to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands. Additionally and likely more importantly, very
dry mid-level air will begin to surround the storm Monday night,
and this is expected to lead to gradual weakening of the system
from Monday night through Wednesday. The intensity of the system is
then expected to level off Wednesday night through Friday as it
encounters the higher SSTs.  The intensity forecast is very close
to the previous forecast with some additional weight given to the
dynamical models which have been performing better with this system
than the statistical guidance.

While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of
the Hawaiian islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to
the state of Hawaii. Now is a good time for everyone in the
Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place. For additional information on any potential impacts from
Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather
Forecast Office here in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 14.9N 140.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 15.3N 142.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 16.3N 148.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 16.7N 151.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  09/0600Z 16.8N 158.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  10/0600Z 17.0N 164.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 17.6N 169.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

霧峰追風者

強度略微增強，分析到T6.5，稍後CPHC也將要飛機實測。

TXPN22 KNES 061158
TCSCNP

A.  10E (HECTOR)

B.  06/1130Z

C.  14.9N

D.  141.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A DT=6.5 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=7.0
PT=6.5 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...FISHER

t02436

15Z評價125節！
目前實測飛機已經起飛

WTPA41 PHFO 061526
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 06 2018

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector has improved
overnight, with a well defined 10 to 15 nautical mile wide eye
surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -80 Celsius cloud tops. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and
JTWC came in at 6.5 (127 knots), while PHFO came in at 6.0 (115
knots). The latest estimate using the Advanced Dvorak technique from
UW-CIMSS yielded 6.8 (135 knots). Given that Hector's satellite
presentation has improved since the previous advisory, we have
elected to raise the initial intensity to 125 knots which correlates
well with a blend of the available intensity estimates. Hector has
continued to track westward at about the same speed as the previous
advisory, so the initial motion remains 280/13 knots.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered and brings
Hector just north of due west over the next 36 to 48 hours due to a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build
to the north of the Hawaiian Island chain, and this should steer
Hector due westward from 48 to 96 hours, before bending back to the
west-northwest beyond 96 hours as a digging upper level trough
between 170W and the International Date Line begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge. The new official forecast
track is very close to the model consensus and nearly identical to
the previous official track forecast.

Hector will remain in a favorable low shear environment through the
forecast period, but there are some factors that should lead to
gradual weakening over the next few days. The hurricane will be
traveling over marginal sea surface temperatures around 27C through
Wednesday, before the SSTs increase slightly to around 28C to the
south of the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday night through Friday.
Additionally and likely more importantly, very dry mid-level air
will begin to surround the storm beginning later today or tonight,
and this is expected to lead to a slow and gradual weakening of the
system through Wednesday night. The intensity of Hector is then
expected to level off Wednesday night through Friday as it
encounters the higher SSTs, with some indication from the HWRF that
re-intensification could occur. The intensity forecast has been
adjusted slightly higher than the previous forecast due to both the
statistical and dynamical models trending higher and coming into
somewhat better agreement. Given the recent better performance of
the dynamical guidance in comparison to the statistical guidance,
more weight was placed on the dynamical models when preparing the
intensity forecast for this advisory package as well.

A couple reconnaissance missions are scheduled to be flown today
between 18Z and 00Z, one by the Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron which will provide additional important data
to assist in future track and intensity forecasts. The other will be
a NOAA G4 mission which will sample the environment around Hector,
providing valuable data for ingestion into the models.

While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of
the Hawaiian islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to
the state of Hawaii. Now is a good time for everyone in the
Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place. For additional information on any potential impacts from
Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather
Forecast Office here in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 15.0N 141.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 15.4N 144.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 15.9N 146.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 16.2N 149.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 16.5N 153.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 16.6N 159.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 17.0N 165.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 17.7N 170.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

krichard2011

Hector 結構相當扎實
雖然長相袖珍 但仍然是一支相當有實力的颶風
目前颶風獵人已盡到颶風內部進行實測
稍早測到最低氣壓 932.4 hPa
甚至用 SFMR 掃到 153 KT 的風速
不過該時段的SFMR Quality control flags 為9
所以不確定 CPHC 是否會採納這個數據
不過目前可以確定這貨應該有130~140KT 左右的實力

173530 1513N 14229W 6956 02773 9618 +086 //// 053143 146 129 030 05
173600 1512N 14228W 6970 02703 9542 +103 +094 058129 142 137 000 00
173630 1511N 14227W 6999 02610 9456 +125 +099 056099 118 137 000 03
173700 1510N 14226W 6954 02612 9377 +153 +099 055066 091 117 002 03
173730 1508N 14225W 6973 02563 9358 +144 +101 060036 054 047 002 03
173800 1507N 14224W 6979 02543 9346 +146 +105 070018 027 034 001 03
173830 1505N 14224W 6970 02561 9343 +149 +106 082010 014 028 000 00
173900 1504N 14223W 6966 02560 9334 +158 +103 011003 008 027 001 00
173930 1502N 14223W 6966 02563 9324 +174 +096 276023 031 035 001 03
174000 1500N 14222W 6961 02603 9353 +181 +090 251066 079 /// /// 03
174030 1459N 14220W 6963 02661 9457 +135 +101 242102 114 149 023 03
174100 1458N 14219W 6950 02785 9622 +086 //// 240117 123 153 031 09
174130 1456N 14218W 6995 02804 9714 +082 //// 235117 120 /// /// 05

霧峰追風者

krichard2011 發表於 2018-8-7 02:07
Hector 結構相當扎實
雖然長相袖珍 但仍然是一支相當有實力的颶風
目前颶風獵人已盡到颶風內部進行實測

18Z 實測後強度提升至135kt。