0908morakot

  四級颶風  ｜  輕度颱風  
編號：10 E｜1817
名稱：Hector｜赫克特



  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 07 月 28 日 19 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 08 月 01 日 05 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 08 月 01 日 11 時
　　　　　　　2018 年 08 月 06 日 17 時 - CPHC接續發報
　　　　　　　2018 年 08 月 14 日 02 時 - JMA接續發報
停編日期　　：2018 年 08 月 15 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心 ( NHC )：120 kt
中太平洋颶風中心 ( CPHC )：135 kt
中央氣象局 (CWB)：20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓(中太)：936 百帕
海平面最低氣壓(西太)：995 百帕
七級風半徑　　：100 公里
十級風半徑　　： --- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
93E.INVEST.20kts-1010mb-8.8N-98.5W


  NHC：10%  

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some slow development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至80%，穩定向西移動。

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula have continued to become better organized
over the past several hours.  If current trends continue, then a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
today or on Wednesday while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 21Z升格熱帶低壓10E，穩定西行，巔峰上望颶風。

142
WTPZ45 KNHC 312039
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018

The broad low pressure system and area of disturbed weather that the
NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally become
well-defined enough and has acquired sufficient organized deep
convection near the center to be classified as a tropical
depression. The low-level center is estimated to be just inside the
southeastern edge of the figure-6 cloud mass based on conventional
and microwave satellite fix data. The initial intensity estimate of
30 kt is based on Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt
from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, along with uncontaminated 30-kt
winds in a 1634 UTC Scatsat-1 scatterometer pass.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A
deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should keep the
tropical cyclone moving toward the west-northwest for the next 48
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter due to
the ridge building slightly southward on days 3-5. The NHC track
forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and
HCCA since this is the first forecast on this system.

Although the comma-shaped cloud pattern is suggestive of a slightly
stronger system, microwave imagery and the Scatsat-1 pass indicate
that the circulation envelope is elongated northeast-to-southwest,
and that westerly winds likely only extend about 30 n mi to the
south of the center. Due to the cyclone's irregular shape, the peak
winds are being held lower than the Dvorak T2.5 data-T numbers.
Visible satellite imagery shows the tops of shallow convection in
the eastern semicircle blowing off toward the west, which is
indicative of modest mid-level shear undercutting the favorable
high-level cirrus outflow layer. This mid-level flow is also likely
producing some intrusions of dry air, a negative condition that
should act to inhibit inner-core convective development in the short
term. These aforementioned unfavorable environmental conditions, in
conjunction with the irregular shape of the cyclone's circulation,
should result in only slow strengthening for the next 48 hours or
so, despite the very favorable deep-layer, low vertical wind shear
environment. In the 48-72 h period, both the GFS and ECMWF models
are forecasting the shear to increase to near 15 kt, which should
act to maintain only slow development. By days 4 and 5, the shear is
forecast to abate, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane
by 120 hours. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA
and IVCN intensity consensus models, but is slightly higher due to
the HMON model showing immediate weakening, which is pulling down
the consensus intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 13.6N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 14.0N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 13.8N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 13.7N 132.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 13.6N 136.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

t02436

命名Hector，上望75節

224
WTPZ45 KNHC 010232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized since the previous advisory with an
increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the
circulation.  As a result, satellite intensity estimates have
increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has
been increased to 35 kt.  Hector becomes the eighth named storm of
the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a
favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which
should result in steady strengthening.  Some moderate northeasterly
shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the
intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle.  The
NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening
early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status
in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity
guidance.  The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly
higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model
guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the
previous NHC advisory.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west-
northwestward or 285/12 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a
generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the
forecast period.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward
speed of the cyclone.  The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion
while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower
speed.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

霧峰追風者

NHC 03Z命名"Hector"，持續西行，巔峰上望75kt。

224
WTPZ45 KNHC 010232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized since the previous advisory with an
increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the
circulation.  As a result, satellite intensity estimates have
increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has
been increased to 35 kt.  Hector becomes the eighth named storm of
the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a
favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which
should result in steady strengthening.  Some moderate northeasterly
shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the
intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle.  The
NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening
early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status
in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity
guidance.  The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly
higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model
guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the
previous NHC advisory.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west-
northwestward or 285/12 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a
generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the
forecast period.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward
speed of the cyclone.  The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion
while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower
speed.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W   75 KT 85 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

霧峰追風者

風眼開啟，NHC 12Z強度升一級颶風，3天後有機會以MH強度進入中太。

175
WTPZ45 KNHC 021427
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Well, so much for the shear.  Satellite images indicate that Hector
is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye.  The
initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak
estimate.  While there still could be some shear over the next day
or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay
north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter
winds.  The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal
SSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane.
The official forecast assumes the current intensification trend
will last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the
more marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts.
It is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an
unrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term,
and have been disregarded.  In the longer range, the upper-level
environment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to
support a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these
conditions.

Hector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt.
A large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the
next several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into
the Central Pacific.  The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5,
causing a more west-northwestward motion early next week.  Little
change was made to the previous official track forecast, although it
is a shade faster at the end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

霧峰追風者

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-8-2 22:37
風眼開啟，NHC 12Z強度升一級颶風，3天後有機會以MH強度進入中太。

NHC 18Z強度升"二級颶風"，快速增強中。

t02436

進入RI，21Z評價95節，巔峰上望C4，預期將以巔峰進入中太

142
WTPZ45 KNHC 022041
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Hector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon.  Visible
GOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a
increasingly symmetric area of deep convection.  The latest
satellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and
since the presentation has continued to improve during the past few
hours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt.

Hector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours-
remarkable since the environment did not seem particularly
favorable even 12 hours ago.  What is perplexing about this forecast
is that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive
environment during the next day or two, none of the regional
hurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show
weakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty
unlikely given the current state of things.  It makes the most sense
to show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the
SSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models.  The new
forecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest
with the lowest environmental shear.  After that time, water
temperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease,
which will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low
confidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be
raised in the short term later tonight.

Hector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt.  The track
forecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the
guidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is
providing a well-defined steering current.  Complications arise in
the long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a
mid-level trough in the Central Pacific.  The latest models show
Hector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the
trough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the
forecast.  This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of
the guidance trending to the north.  The official forecast is
shifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the
guidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

依目前GFS，有機會進入西太