11S.Dumazile 掠過馬達加斯加東方外海南下轉化溫氣

霧峰追風者 · 2018-3-3 08:28

MFR 18Z強度升熱帶低壓，12H內有機會命名，巔峰上望85KT。

CMRSF_201803021800_3_6_20172018.pdf (66.84 KB, 下載次數: 0)

JTWC 巔峰上望四級颶風。
sh112018.20180302224044.gif

20180302.2330.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.11SELEVEN.40kts-997mb-128S-544E.100pc.jpg

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周子堯@FB · 2018-3-3 10:57

MFR 00Z命名為DUMAZILE(都馬齊爾)，巔峰上看80KT

CMRSF_201803030000_DUMAZILE.pdf (67.58 KB, 下載次數: 0)

20180302.2252.f15.x.colorpct_85h_85v_1deg.11SELEVEN.40kts-997mb-128S-544E.083pc.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2018-3-4 13:15

MFR 00Z強度升強烈熱帶風暴，路徑比預期偏西。

CMRSF_201803040000_DUMAZILE.pdf (66.89 KB, 下載次數: 0)

SWI_20172018 (2).png

JTWC 00Z強度升一級颶風。

TXXS29 KNES 040017
TCSSIO

A.  11S (DUMAZILE)

B.  03/2330Z

C.  16.8S

D.  52.1E

E.  THREE/MET-8

F.  T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS GREATER THAN .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL WITH 0.5
ADDED FOR WHITE BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET = 3.5. AND PT = 4.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

03/1823Z 16.1S 52.4E AMSU
...KIBLER

20180304.0400.msg-4.ircolor.11S.DUMAZILE.65kts.982mb.16.6S.51.6E.100pc.jpg

t02436 · 2018-3-4 22:38

MFR 12Z升熱帶氣旋。

ZCZC 584
WTIO30 FMEE 041230 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUMAZILE)
2.A POSITION 2018/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 50.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 410 SW: 300 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/05 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/05 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/06 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/03/06 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/03/07 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/07 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/08 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/09 12 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN

20180304.1345.msg-4.ircolor.11S.DUMAZILE.80kts.970mb.18.5S.50.8E.100pc.jpg

zjk369 · 2018-3-5 03:11

TPXS10 PGTW 041827 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE)B. 04/1800ZC. 19.36SD. 50.66EE. THREE/MET8F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRSG. IR/EIRH. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AGREES WITH DT YIELDING A 4.0. PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO PT.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 04/1459Z 19.12S 50.55E WIND 04/1540Z 19.03S 50.60E SSMS 04/1621Z 19.18S 50.52E MMHS LEMBKE

霧峰追風者 · 2018-3-5 16:34

JTWC 風眼隱現，強度升三級颶風。
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20180305.0555.metopa.89rgb.11S.DUMAZILE.100kts.952mb.21S.51.3E.100pc.jpg

20180305.0745.msg-4.ir.11S.DUMAZILE.100kts.952mb.21S.51.3E.100pc.jpg

zjk369 · 2018-3-5 18:42

TPXS10 PGTW 050910
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DUMAZILE)
B. 05/0830Z
C. 21.48S
D. 51.38E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0336Z  20.68S  50.98E  MMHS
05/0531Z  21.05S  51.22E  GPMI
RICHARDSON