霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：06-20172018 ( 11 S )
名稱：Dumazile


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 02 月 26 日 21 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 03 月 02 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 03 月 03 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 03 月 09 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國氣象局 (MFR)：90 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：105 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓：945 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94S-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-11.2S-56.4E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.8S 58.5E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261107Z SSMI 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME MITIGATING NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

zjk369

霧峰追風者

zjk369 發表於 2018-2-27 20:49

補報文，JTWC 12Z評級提升“Medium”

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 58.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING, FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 271051Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
NOTCH FEATURE IN THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLC. 94S IS AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CREATING ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(29-31 CELSIUS) ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN.
GLOBAL MODELS INCREASINGLY AGREE THAT 94S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND GAIN
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE AND WHEN
IT COULD GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

DATE: 2018/02/27 AT 1200 UTC

Potential cyclogenesis North-East of Madagascar :

Last observations show a broad ill defined surface trough, around Agalega. Convective activity is
concentrated in the southern semi-circle, in the slowing down area of the trade wind flow. No closed
circulation is depicted within this area.

Tomorrow, the trade wind flow convergence is expected to increase with the evacuation of the
baroclinic low south of Madagascar. With the persistence of a very good upper divergence, a closed
circulation is forecast to build, South-South-West of Agalega. The lack of equatorial convergence
and a wide structure may at first slow the deepening. But in a very conducive environment this
week-end, the intensification rate is likely to increase. A parabolic meridian track is expected due to
the absence of a mid-tropospheric ridge at south.

Numerical guidance is in a good agreement to forecast a cyclogenesis over the week-end. Yet, they
differ on its exact location and the deepening rate, which induces a lot of uncertainty on a possible
threat to inhabited areas.

For the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm become low on
Friday, moderate on Saturday and high on Sunday.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 55.6E TO 15.2S 54.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 55.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY
470 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011229Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
REGION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF 94S ARE SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 94S IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONDUCIVE SSTS (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
94S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021430Z.//

zjk369

WTXS21 PGTW 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 55.6E TO 15.2S 54.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 55.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY
470 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011229Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
REGION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF 94S ARE SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 94S IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (LESS THAN 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONDUCIVE SSTS (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
94S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021430Z.//NNNN

霧峰追風者

MFR編號"熱帶擾動第6號"

** WTIO22 FMEE 020610 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6  1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 53.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING 25K IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/02 AT 18 UTC:
13.9 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/03 AT 06 UTC:
14.6 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z率先升格TS,編號11S，上望三級颶風。