t02436

四級強烈熱帶氣旋，上望五級。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 111450 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 944HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S
170.0W AT 111200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. GITA MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 150  NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTANT AND OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST
24 HOURS. EYE DISCERNIBLE ON IR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
300HPA WITH OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES.
GITA CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH LG EYE AND W SURROUND, EYE
ELONGATED. THUS DT=5.5, METAND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING  


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 21.8S 172.3W MOV  W AT 11 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 21.6S 174.7W MOV  W AT 11 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 21.3S 177.0W MOV  W AT 11 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 21.1S 179.0W MOV  W AT 11 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 112000UTC.

霧峰追風者

分析到T6.0,JTWC 強度升三級颶風上限。

TXPS21 KNES 112358
TCSWSP

A.  09P (GITA)

B.  11/2322Z

C.  21.7S

D.  172.7W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W RING AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS E#=6.0
AND +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.5 AND PT=6.0. FT OF 6.0 IS BASED ON DT
OBTAINED USING RAPID INTENSIFICATION 6-HR AVERAGING.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...VELASCO

蜜露

美式和澳式都上到了Cat.4 , 澳式方面上看Cat.5



目前向西的移動 , 吉塔和溫士頓有些相似.  上面是充滿水氣
也是平西移動.







會從斐濟以南的機會略過較高. OHC是比較一般般.

Meow

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gita_2018-02-11_2136Z.jpg

霧峰追風者

強度升澳式5級熱帶氣旋。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 132010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 927HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S
178.5E AT 131800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. GITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 110 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 210  NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EYE DISCERNIBLE ON IR AND WELL DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTANT WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
250HPA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES. GITA
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST WARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE AND LG SURROUND.
THUS DT=6.0, MET=6.5, PT=6.5 AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 21.2S 176.8E MOV  W AT 08 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 21.4S 175.2E MOV  W AT 08 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 21.9S 173.5E MOV  WSW AT 08 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.7S 171.7E MOV  WSW AT 08 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140200UTC.

蜜露

吉塔的強度的近巔峰美圖 , 看起來比上一個南印度洋的西比爾弱.

t02436

紐西蘭氣象局06Z接續發報，首次引進預測路徑圖:o

WHPS01 NFFN 170000
HURRICANE WARNING 046 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 170141 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5 SOUTH 166.6
EAST AT 170000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 24.5S 166.6E AT 170000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 170  NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.5S 165.1E AT 171200 UTC
              AND NEAR 26.9S 163.7E AT 180000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 045. PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR FUTURE
WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HURRICANE WARNING 284
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GITA [970hPa] centre was located near 25.3 South 164.6 East at 171200 UTC.
Position 60.
Repeat position 25.3S 164.6E at 171200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving westsouthwest 10 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre with phenomenal sea.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 170 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to northwest and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 26.1S 163.2E at 180000 UTC
and near 27.4S 161.9E at 181200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 279.

Issued at 1:41am Sunday 18 Feb 2018