霧峰追風者

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：07 F ( 09 P )
名稱：Gita


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 02 月 02 日 03 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 02 月 09 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 02 月 09 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 21 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：110 kt
紐西蘭氣象局(NZKL)：65 kt - 02.17 06Z接續發報
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：125 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：927 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
97P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb-15.0S-163.0E


以上資料來自：FMS、NZKL、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號07F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.3S
AND 162.7E AT 030600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.9S 170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062205Z AMSU METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 97P OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 97P
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE 72-96 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 22Z評級提升Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 170.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 176.1E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 071853Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE FLARING AND NOT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 071037Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC
MODELS AGREE THAT 97P WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

FMS 12Z開始發報，看好明後天有機會命名。

WTPS11 NFFN 081200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 081414 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 179.7W
AT 081200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE, UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH
AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE-HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 14.3S 177.1W MOV ENE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 13.8S 174.6W MOV ENE AT 13KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 14.2S 172.0W MOV E AT 12KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 15.7S 170.2W MOV ESE AT 12KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2000UTC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z直接升格09P,風速達到40kts

霧峰追風者

FMS 09Z命名GITA，巔峰暫時上望澳式C2。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090632 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 175.2W AT
090400 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTANT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP INTO LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.50 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5, PT AND MET AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

TC GITA WAS NAMED EARLY NOT DUE TO DVORAK BUT RATHER DUE TO WARNING
PURPOSES AS REQUESTED BY PAGOPAGO MET SERVICE AS NIGHT LOOMS AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE A FULLY BLOWN CYCLONE OVERNIGHT.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091600 UTC 14.8S 172.7W MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100400 UTC 16.2S 170.7W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101600 UTC 18.1S 169.7W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110400 UTC 19.5S 170.1W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 090800UTC.

t02436

FMS評價70節，站上三級強烈熱帶氣旋。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 100847 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GITA CENTRE 968HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 168.5W AT
100600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR/EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. GITA MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 70 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 050 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 030  NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 045 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 90  NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AND ORGANISATION GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER LOW SHEAR WITH WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE, CENTRE EMBEDDED IN LG,
YIELDS CF=4.5 THUS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING  T4.5/4.5/D1,5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 19.1S 167.8W MOV  SSE AT 11 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.7S 168.6W MOV  S AT 09 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.4S 170.5W MOV  SSW AT 08 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 21.6S 173.0W MOV  SW   AT 08 KT WITH
100 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON GITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
101400UTC.