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asus5635|2016-8-18 06:37
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顯示全部樓層
又評回Medium了
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.0N 159.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY
700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, HOWEVER, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT IT IS NOW
TRANSITIONING TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS GOING THROUGH A MOISTENING PHASE
WITH INCREASING VALUES (55-65MM) WITHIN A MORE SYMMETRIC CORE.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A MORE SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE CORE. A 171841Z GPM COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW, PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SYSTEM,
IS NOW OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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