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陳約禮@FB|2016-4-6 11:29
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本帖最後由 陳約禮@FB 於 2016-4-6 11:38 編輯
WTPS31 PGTW 060300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ZENA) WARNING NR 003//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ZENA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 172.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 26 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 172.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 19.3S 177.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 20.4S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 21.0S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.2S 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL ---REMARKS:060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 173.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (ZENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THEPAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 5 NM WIDE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE WITH PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 052214Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK VALUES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ZENA IS TRACKING WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITHIN THIS ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS VWS BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 36 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC ZENA, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//NNNN
4/6 00Z老J升C2 90KT
接上槽前，幅散猛爆，是這波急速增強主因
早上一度開眼
稍早則又填塞
逐漸移入風切強勁區域，現在應該已經是巔峰
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