lhl0207

基本資料     
編號　　　　：97 W
擾動編號日期：2016 年 04 月 04 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2016 年 04 月 00 日 00 時
97W.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.14.7S.166.0E

t02436

FMS昨天另編15F，14F編號由97P取代。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD14F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
169.0E AT 032100 UTC. TD14F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTANT PAST 24 HOURS. ORGRANISATION POOR. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

t02436

FMS再度編號16F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD16F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S
162.0E AT 040600 UTC. TD16F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CONVECTION FLUCTUATES OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ORGRANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

tpm630

型態良好，渦度泛白，底層疑似建立中









老J分析T2.5，距離命名已經不遠

TPPS11 PGTW 050706

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (W OF VANUATU)

B. 05/0600Z

C. 14.85S

D. 166.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   05/0408Z  14.65S  165.55E  MMHS


   MARTINEZ

風切是16F最需克服的條件，未來1~2天環境各方面還算不錯，有利繼續發展，但隨後風切會顯著增強











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