WTPN21 PGTW 292230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 9.4N 160.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 161.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
160.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH
OF UJELANG. THE APPARENT FLARING CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT
IN THE IR LOOP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 291941Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE THE SYSTEM
HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO ITS LOCATION SOUTH OF A LARGE TUTT
CELL, THERE IS STILL MODERATE VWS AFFECTING THIS SYSTEM, FORCING THE
SYSTEM TO REFRAIN FROM BEING VERTICALLY STACKED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302230Z.//
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