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HKWCFC網主|2012-7-27 10:20
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顯示全部樓層
為何JMA總是樂觀
?
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE 262123Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ PASS SHOW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AROUND A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST
20 HOURS, SEVERAL LLCCS HAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TEMPORARY BURSTS OF CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES
HAVE DEPICTED THE SHORT-LIVED LLCCS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED NEAR THE SEA OF JAPAN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS,
RANGING FROM 28 TO 30C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. |
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