|
|
c789654|2011-10-1 06:21
|
顯示全部樓層
WTPN33 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.2N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.6N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 123.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 5-NM PINHOLE
EYE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 301730Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
ALONG THE NORHTWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 5 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
TYPHOON'S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS - THIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. TY 22W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. TYPHOON NALGAE WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN LUZON OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SIGNIFICANLY WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
BUT WITH MINIMAL SLOWDOWN. BY TAU 24, IT WILL EMERGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND MAINTAIN TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM
WATERS (28 CELSIUS). AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HAINAN, SLOWY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN BEFORE MAKING FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH MINOR SPREADING AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. WBAR IS ON THE EXTREME
RIGHT AND EGRR IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S
UNLIKELY PULL INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z,
011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
|
評分
-
查看全部評分
|
