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myself|2011-9-28 22:53
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本帖最後由 myself 於 2011-9-28 23:04 編輯
以下資料引用自JTWC
路徑資料
WTPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.5N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.8N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND
291500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
預測理由
WDPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A SMALL DEEP CONVECTIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE IR AND SSMIS IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS IMPROVED. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, TS 22W SHOULD STEADILY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRANSLATION
SPEED. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL 36
HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK SPEEDS DIFFER AS EGRR AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS WITH A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS NALGAE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN
TIP OF LUZON AND CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.//
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