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c789654|2011-10-3 17:31
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WTPN33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 113.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.7N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.5N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 113.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 030636Z AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 22W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS TS
22W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ERROR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
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