jrchang5

BoM判定19/00Z近中心最大風速續升至80kts，中心氣壓964hpa。
由最新的雷達降水回波圖，可看出Trevor已發展出雙眼牆，強度已近第一次巔峰。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 19/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 144.1E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 964 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0600: 13.1S 143.5E:     020 [040]:  085  [155]:  959
+12:  19/1200: 13.1S 143.0E:     035 [065]:  060  [110]:  980
+18:  19/1800: 13.2S 142.5E:     045 [085]:  045  [085]:  990
+24:  20/0000: 13.2S 142.1E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  993
+36:  20/1200: 13.1S 141.2E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  990
+48:  21/0000: 13.1S 140.6E:     100 [180]:  065  [120]:  975
+60:  21/1200: 13.2S 140.0E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  963
+72:  22/0000: 13.6S 139.0E:     135 [255]:  090  [165]:  954
+96:  23/0000: 15.1S 135.9E:     180 [335]:  100  [185]:  946
+120: 24/0000: 17.3S 132.8E:     270 [500]:  030  [055]:  999
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Trevor has developed rapidly in the past 24 hours,
developing an eye overnight. However, recent imagery shows slight warming of
cloud tops and a double eye wall appearance on microwave and Weipa radar may
indicate that intensification of the compact inner eye [RMW - 10 nautical miles
or less]. has been arrested.

Intensity of 80 kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.0 based on an eye pattern:
LG surround with an DG eye  [DT 5.0 but has fluctuated over the past 6 hours].
ADT estimates have risen sharply to CI=5.3, though this latest info has yet to
be ingested to SATCON which is still at 72kn [corrected to 10 min. mean].

Landfall is expected in the next six hours. Aside from land influences, the
current environment is favourable for further intensification: low wind shear;
highly diffluent upper level winds with strong  poleward outflow in particular
and high low-mid level moisture. Further intensification to a category 4 [90+kn]
at landfall is possible but is dependent upon the how the inner core responds.

Following landfall, surface winds should weaken considerably but once the
circulation moves into the Gulf,  a period of rapid intensification is highly
likely. NWP models are consistent with this as well as a transition into a much
larger, very intense system.

The cyclone has been steered by a weakening mid-level ridge to the east. A
stronger middle level ridge is now building across the mainland to the south
which is expected to become the dominant steering mechanism and accelerate the
system to the west-southwest over the Gulf. A land impact appears highly likely
as a severe TC later in the week or weekend on the NT side of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

jrchang5

依最新的雷達降水回波圖，風眼於19/07Z左右正在登陸約克角半島。BoM判定06Z登陸前近中心最大風速達85kts，中心氣壓967hpa。預測進入卡灣重新發展後，巔峰強度上望澳式C4。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0707 UTC 19/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 143.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [264 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1200: 13.0S 143.1E:     020 [040]:  065  [120]:  977
+12:  19/1800: 13.1S 142.6E:     035 [065]:  045  [085]:  986
+18:  20/0000: 13.1S 142.1E:     045 [085]:  040  [070]:  992
+24:  20/0600: 13.1S 141.7E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  994
+36:  20/1800: 13.0S 141.0E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  982
+48:  21/0600: 13.1S 140.4E:     100 [180]:  075  [135]:  968
+60:  21/1800: 13.3S 139.6E:     120 [220]:  085  [155]:  960
+72:  22/0600: 13.9S 138.4E:     135 [255]:  090  [165]:  952
+96:  23/0600: 15.5S 135.0E:     180 [335]:  075  [140]:  970
+120: 24/0600: 18.0S 132.6E:     270 [500]:  030  [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Trevor is making landfall on the far north Qld coast
near Lockhart River. The circulation developed rapidly in the last 36h, then
temporarily weakened earlier today when the eye filled in, but in the few hours
prior to landfall it has experienced a burst in deep convection indicating
renewed intensification.

Intensity of 85 kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=5.0 based on time averaged
embedded centre and eye pattern though some fluctuations in DT numbers in the
past six hours. ADT estimates have risen sharply to CI=5.3, and hence SATCON has
responded with intensity at 90kn [corrected to 10 min. mean].

Aside from land influences, the current environment is favourable for
intensification over water: low wind shear; highly diffluent upper level winds
with strong  poleward outflow in particular and high low-mid level moisture.
Following landfall, surface winds should weaken considerably until it emerges
into the Gulf of Carpentaria later Wednesday. NWP models are generally
consistent with intensification as well as a transition into a much larger, very
intense system.

The cyclone has been steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the south which should
persist with slight strengthening of this later in the week steering the system
to the west-southwest over the Gulf. A land impact appears highly likely as a
severe TC later in the week or weekend on the NT side of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

另JTWC判定06Z登陸前近中心最大風速升至100kts，中心氣壓954hpa。

20P TREVOR
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 13.0°S 143.7°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 954 mb

霧峰追風者

目前通過約克角半島中，BoM強度減弱為澳式C2,JTWC也略微減弱至C2,預計明天進入卡灣將再整合，上望澳式C4。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1429 UTC 19/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 143.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [278 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 969 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [15 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT:W0.5/3HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1800: 13.0S 142.9E:     020 [040]:  050  [090]:  986
+12:  20/0000: 13.0S 142.5E:     035 [065]:  040  [075]:  991
+18:  20/0600: 13.1S 142.1E:     045 [085]:  040  [075]:  990
+24:  20/1200: 13.0S 141.8E:     060 [110]:  045  [085]:  986
+36:  21/0000: 13.0S 141.2E:     080 [145]:  060  [110]:  977
+48:  21/1200: 13.1S 140.6E:     100 [180]:  080  [145]:  963
+60:  22/0000: 13.6S 139.6E:     120 [220]:  085  [155]:  957
+72:  22/1200: 14.1S 138.2E:     135 [255]:  095  [170]:  950
+96:  23/1200: 15.9S 135.0E:     180 [335]:  055  [100]:  982
+120: 24/1200: 18.8S 133.2E:     270 [500]:  030  [055]:  998
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Trevor crossed the coast earlier this evening just south
of Lockhart River as a strong category 3 system, and remains slow moving in the
area as a slightly weaker category 3 system. Trevor has begun weakening, with
the eye filling in on recent Weipa radar and satellite imagery.

The cyclone has been slow moving as it crossed the coast, and the community at
Lockhart River [approximately 17 km north of the centre] has experienced the
northern eye wall with damaging to destructive winds for over six hours. The
automatic weather station at Lockhart River recorded peak gusts to 74 knots [137
km/h], although the winds have been offshore and subject to terrain effects.
MSLP dropped to 974.8 hPa.

Dvorak analysis will cease to be applicable with the centre over land, however
from recent images: FT=4.5/CI=5.0 based on time-averaged embedded centre with LG
surround, as the eye is now very transient. Objective aids are also unavailable
now that the system is over land. Intensity of 70 kt is based on standard inland
decay rates supported by peripheral observations.

Surface winds will continue to weaken considerably until the cyclone emerges
into the Gulf of Carpentaria later Wednesday. NWP models are generally
consistent with fairly rapid re-intensification as well as a transition into a
much larger, very intense system once it begins moving over water, with the
environment remaining favourable over the Gulf for the coming days.

The cyclone has been steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the south, which
should persist with slight  strengthening of this later in the week steering the
system to the west-southwest over the Gulf. A land impact appears highly likely
as a severe TC later in the week or weekend on the NT side of the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1930 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

霧峰追風者

目前移動速度滯留飄移中，受到陸地影響，強度已減弱到35kt，預計明天上半天才會進入卡灣，強度重整上望澳式C4。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0654 UTC 20/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 141.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [297 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: n/a
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  20/1200: 13.0S 141.7E:     030 [060]:  045  [085]:  990
+12:  20/1800: 12.9S 141.4E:     045 [080]:  050  [095]:  985
+18:  21/0000: 12.9S 141.1E:     055 [105]:  060  [110]:  980
+24:  21/0600: 12.9S 140.8E:     070 [130]:  070  [130]:  974
+36:  21/1800: 13.3S 140.0E:     090 [165]:  085  [155]:  963
+48:  22/0600: 13.8S 138.9E:     110 [200]:  095  [170]:  954
+60:  22/1800: 14.4S 137.5E:     130 [235]:  095  [175]:  948
+72:  23/0600: 15.3S 135.9E:     145 [270]:  095  [175]:  964
+96:  24/0600: 18.0S 133.5E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1002
+120: 25/0600: 20.7S 133.9E:     280 [515]:  030  [050]: 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Trevor remains a marginal category 1 cyclone, located just over
land near Arukun on the western side of Cape York Peninsula. The centre was
located with high confidence using Weipa radar and hi-resolution visible
satellite imagery. Satellite and radar imagery shows that deeper convection is
starting to re-develop on the northern side of the circulation centre.

The atmospheric environment remains extremely favourable for re-intensification
as tropical cyclone Trevor moves offshore this evening, with low vertical wind
shear and SSTs around 30-31C. Rapid re-intensification is therefore considered
likely. NWP models are in agreement of a much larger and intense system
developing once it pushes further west over central Gulf of Carpentaria waters.

A short wave upper trough is pushing across southern Queensland, hence the slow
movement of the cyclone in the short term, but as a stronger sub-tropical ridge
develops over the interior of the Australian continent tomorrow, the cyclone
should start to develop a more steady west-southwestwards track.

A land impact as a severe tropical cyclone appears highly likely later in the
week or weekend on the Northern Territory side of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定中心已出海,20/1800Z重新開始分析T值

TPPS10 PGTW 201826

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR)

B. 20/1800Z

C. 13.02S

D. 141.33E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. .65 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE DUE
TO SYSTEM BEING OVER LAND 24 HOURS AGO. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA

jrchang5

BoM報文指出20/15Z中心位於約克角半島西側韋帕以南海岸，18Z已進入卡灣。預測21日將在卡灣迅速發展至澳式C3，23日可能以巔峰澳式C4強度侵襲澳洲北領地。

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1942 UTC 20/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 141.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/0000: 13.0S 141.2E:     025 [050]:  055  [100]:  984
+12:  21/0600: 13.1S 141.0E:     040 [070]:  070  [130]:  973
+18:  21/1200: 13.3S 140.6E:     050 [095]:  080  [150]:  965
+24:  21/1800: 13.5S 140.0E:     065 [120]:  085  [155]:  959
+36:  22/0600: 14.0S 138.8E:     085 [155]:  090  [165]:  956
+48:  22/1800: 14.7S 137.4E:     105 [190]:  100  [185]:  950
+60:  23/0600: 15.7S 135.7E:     125 [230]:  085  [155]:  961
+72:  23/1800: 17.0S 134.3E:     140 [265]:  045  [085]:  993
+96:  24/1800: 19.9S 133.6E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]: 1001
+120: 25/1800: 21.1S 135.5E:     275 [505]:  025  [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Trevor Tropical cyclone Trevor has recently moved over water
off the Cape York Peninsula coast just south of Weipa. The centre was located
with high confidence using Weipa radar and infrared satellite imagery. Satellite
imagery shows that deeper convection and band curvature has improved over the
last 6 hours as the system moved offshore and we enter the favourable overnight
period. Dvorak FT is based on curved band of 0.5 wrap yielding a DT of 2.5. CI
held at 3.0

The environment remains extremely favourable for re-intensification now that
tropical cyclone Trevor has moved offshore, with low vertical wind shear and
SSTs around 30-31C. Rapid re-intensification is therefore considered likely. NWP
models are in agreement of a much larger and intense system developing once it
pushes further west over central Gulf of Carpentaria waters. A short wave upper
trough is pushing across southern Queensland, hence the slow movement of the
cyclone in the short term, but as a stronger sub-tropical ridge develops over
the interior of the Australian continent during Thursday, the cyclone should
start to develop a more steady west-southwestwards track. A land impact as a
severe tropical cyclone appears highly likely lon the weekend on the Northern
Territory side of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

蜜露

南半球現在上演精彩階段














特雷弗移速慢, 加上環境不錯.

t02436

00Z報已重回澳式C3，將持續增強。