老農民版夜神月

經過多日的整合發展
1718Z,JTWC升格20P

20P INVEST 190317 1800 13.1S 146.3E SHEM 35 996

TPPS10 PGTW 171816

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NE OF QUEENSLAND)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 13.13S

D. 146.41E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNTVTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

jrchang5

BoM 17/18Z升格命名首報

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1906 UTC 17/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 146.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [248 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/0000: 12.7S 145.6E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  994
+12:  18/0600: 12.7S 145.3E:     065 [120]:  045  [085]:  992
+18:  18/1200: 12.7S 144.9E:     075 [145]:  050  [095]:  990
+24:  18/1800: 12.9S 144.6E:     090 [165]:  055  [100]:  987
+36:  19/0600: 13.1S 143.7E:     110 [200]:  060  [110]:  984
+48:  19/1800: 13.3S 142.6E:     130 [235]:  035  [065]: 1000
+60:  20/0600: 13.2S 141.6E:     150 [275]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  20/1800: 12.9S 140.9E:     165 [310]:  030  [055]: 1002
+96:  21/1800: 13.4S 139.8E:     210 [390]:  045  [085]:  994
+120: 22/1800: 14.8S 137.8E:     300 [555]:  060  [110]:  985
REMARKS:
Tropical low 20U [now tropical cyclone Trevor] has continued to develop during
the past 6 hours, and now exhibits a central dense overcast with a cold comma
and peripheral banding. Position fair based on recent microwave passes and
extrapolation.

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with an average 0.6 to 0.7
wrap over the past three hours. DT is 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D
trend. PT is 3.0 based on the improved cloud structure. Final T is 3.0. ADT
guidance suggests FT 2.8 with Vmax [1 minute] 41 knots. Intensity is analysed at
35 knots [10 minute mean].

The system will continue to be steered WSW by a weak mid-level ridge to the east
in the short term. In the medium term, a new ridge will build under the system
and steer it more westward. NWP guidance is reasonably consistent on this
prognosis.

Vertical wind shear is low along the projected track, with the subtropical jet
well to the south. SSTs are favourable and upper outflow is reasonably good to
the south. Development at the standard rate is forecast which would see the
system reach at least category 2 before making landfall on the eastern Cape York
Peninsula coast late on Tuesday, though a crossing at category 3 cannot be ruled
out.

In the longer term, the system is likely to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria
around mid-week. Conditions for development are expected to remain favourable
and the system is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 4:46 am EST on Monday 18 March 2019

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Trevor has formed in the northern Coral Sea.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery, including Coen and Lockhart River.

Watch Zone
Cape York to Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation (including Cooktown), including adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 12.4 degrees South 146.1 degrees East, estimated to be 305 kilometres east of Lockhart River and 500 kilometres north of Cairns.

Movement: west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Trevor, category 1, has formed in the northern Coral Sea east of Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone Trevor is expected to move in a west-southwest direction towards the Cape York Peninsula coast. It is expected to continue intensifying, and should reach category 2 before crossing the eastern Cape York Peninsula coast later on Tuesday.

Hazards:
GALES, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are expected to develop between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery on Monday night. These GALES may extend north to the Torres Strait Islands and south to Cape Tribulation, including Cooktown, on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h, may occur as the centre of the cyclone makes landfall on the eastern Cape York Peninsula coast later on Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the far north Queensland coast. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast to develop across far north Queensland over the next few days.

Recommended Action:
People between Cape Grenville and Cape Flattery, including Lockhart River and Coen, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours.

People elsewhere between the Torres Strait Islands and Cape Tribulation, including Cooktown should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next advice at 8am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Monday 18 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

老農民版夜神月

目前由於BoM也恰巧同一時間升格
因此可見圖上給予20P的仍是暫時命名Twenty
稍後應即會改為BoM給予的國際通用命名Trevor

jrchang5

BoM 18/06Z升格為澳式C2，預測19日下午至晚間將以澳式C3強度登陸約克角半島。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0724 UTC 18/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 145.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/1200: 12.6S 145.0E:     035 [070]:  055  [100]:  987
+12:  18/1800: 12.7S 144.7E:     050 [090]:  065  [120]:  983
+18:  19/0000: 12.9S 144.3E:     060 [115]:  070  [130]:  980
+24:  19/0600: 13.0S 143.8E:     075 [135]:  080  [150]:  980
+36:  19/1800: 13.1S 142.8E:     095 [175]:  040  [075]:  997
+48:  20/0600: 13.1S 141.9E:     115 [210]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60:  20/1800: 12.9S 141.2E:     135 [245]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  21/0600: 13.0S 140.7E:     150 [280]:  040  [075]:  996
+96:  22/0600: 13.9S 139.1E:     195 [365]:  065  [120]:  980
+120: 23/0600: 15.5S 136.5E:     285 [525]:  085  [155]:  964
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Trevor has continued to become organised with several deep
convective bands wrapping around the centre in the last 6 hours. Latest
satellite images show deep convection now covering the centre with a possible
CDO developing.

Position is good based on enhanced animated rapid scan VIS imagery and hint of
the a circulation centre appearing on Weipa radar.

Dvorak analysis is based on a tightest curved band wrapping 0.8 yielding a
DT=3.5. MET agrees with development at 1.5 rate per day. ADT is near 3.0 and
SATCON estimate is 60 knots [1-minute average].

The cyclone continues to be steered by a weakening mid-level ridge to the east,
while a stronger middle level ridge is now building across the main land to the
south. This will maintain a dominant east to northeast steering over the system.

Overall synoptic environment has remained very favourable in the last 24 hours,
enabling Trevor to rapidly develop from a T2.0 to a T3.5. Given the favourable
conditions into the convective diurnal cycle [overnight], further
intensification is expected.

At this rate, Trevor could reach a high end category 3 cyclone before it crosses
the coast on Tuesday evening. There is a risk of further intensification to a
category 4 even, if the cyclone moves slower than its forecast speed.

Trevor is expected to weaken to a low or a marginal category 1 system as it
crosses the Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Wednesday. The
conditions for redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria are similar to that of
the east coast. Hence, Trevor is expected to redevelop or intensify quickly as
it moves over water towards the southwestward.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

IDQ20023

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 4:53 pm EST on Monday 18 March 2019

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Trevor is rapidly intensifying and expected be a category 3 cyclone tomorrow morning.A Cyclone Watch has been extended to the western Peninsula coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Orford Ness to Cooktown.

Watch Zone
Cape York to Pormpuraaw.

Cancelled Zone
Cooktown to Cape Tribulation and Orford Ness to Cape York.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Trevor at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South 145.3 degrees East, estimated to be 220 kilometres east of Lockhart River and 370 kilometres east of Weipa.

Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor continues to move slowly towards the eastern Cape York Peninsula coast. It is expected to intensify to a category 3 before crossing the coast near Lockhart River on Tuesday evening. Tropical Cyclone Trevor may weaken as it crosses the northern Peninsula during Tuesday night before entering the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday, where it will reintensify into a tropical cyclone.

Hazards:
GALES, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are expected to develop between Cape Grenville and Cooktown tonight. These GALES may extend north to Orford Ness during Tuesday, if the cyclone takes a more northerly track.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h are possible between Cape Grenville and Coen from Tuesday afternoon as the cyclone approaches the coast.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Trevor, with extreme gusts up to 205 km/h may occur near the centre as the cyclone makes landfall on Tuesday evening.

GALES are expected to extend inland over the Peninsula on Tuesday night as the cyclone moves inland. GALES may develop along the western Peninsula coast between Thursday Island and Pormpuraaw during Wednesday as Trevor reintensifies in the Gulf of Caprentaria.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday's morning high tides for far northeast Queensland coast, north of Port Douglas.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected between Orford Ness and Cape Flattery. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in these areas are likely to be affected by flooding and should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast to develop across far north Queensland over the next few days. A Flood Watch has been issued for catchments north of Cairns to Kowanyama.

Recommended Action:
People between Orford Ness and Cooktown, including Lockhart River and Coen, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours.

People between Cape York and Pormpuraaw on western Peninsula, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next advice at 8pm AEST.

- Information is available from your local government.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AEST Monday 18 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

老農民版夜神月

EC數值主觀預測20P巔峰最低氣壓913,這個氣壓數字預測其實對於EC來說並不常見

GFS也預測氣壓降至908,同樣看好20P登陸澳洲前的強度爆發

GFS主觀數值氣旋強度雖然常常發抽,但這次對於20P倒跟EC不謀而合

下圖為EC系級的路徑預測,大概的西行登澳方向已大致底定

接下來最需要觀察的是是否有如數值預測的一般在登陸前大爆發
目前的環境看來是支持的(如下圖)
但是環境好歸好
強度能否反映出來還是要看系統的造化

老農民版夜神月

JTWC官方T值分析已達5.0

TPPS10 PGTW 181816

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR)

B. 18/1750Z

C. 12.86S

D. 144.57E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT W) OF 6.0. MET 4.0. PT
5.0. DBO PT. EYE DIAMETER 12NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DAVIS

上面有說過EC對於熱帶氣旋的強度預測向來是比較少在畫大餅的
所以要出現915以下的中心最低氣壓預測其實不太容易
印象中去年西北太平洋的6個C5,7個猛烈
也只有山竹在兩三日前被預報出低於915百怕的巔峰中心氣壓

也因此這次的20P的巔峰強度會如何,確實值得觀察

霧峰追風者

BoM 風眼隱現，18Z強度升澳式C3,即將登陸。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 18/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.9S
Longitude: 144.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0000: 13.1S 144.2E:     020 [040]:  075  [140]:  968
+12:  19/0600: 13.2S 143.6E:     035 [065]:  080  [150]:  964
+18:  19/1200: 13.2S 143.0E:     045 [085]:  060  [110]:  980
+24:  19/1800: 13.1S 142.5E:     060 [110]:  045  [085]:  990
+36:  20/0600: 13.1S 141.6E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  20/1800: 12.9S 140.9E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+60:  21/0600: 12.9S 140.3E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  993
+72:  21/1800: 13.2S 139.4E:     135 [255]:  060  [110]:  980
+96:  22/1800: 14.4S 136.7E:     180 [335]:  080  [150]:  965
+120: 23/1800: 16.5S 133.7E:     270 [500]:  035  [065]:  996
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Trevor continues to develop, with an eye evident on IR
imagery for the past several hours. Radar and recent microwave imagery depict a
very compact inner convective core [RMW - 10 nautical miles or less]. Position
is good based on Weipa radar and satellite and microwave imagery.

Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern: B surround with an LG eye and W
ring. This yields DT 5.0 and has been consistent over the past few hours. MET is
4.5 based on a 24 hour D+ trend. PT is also 4.5. Final T based on DT due to
confidence in the pattern, however limited to 4.5 by Dvorak constraints. CMSS
and NESDIS ADT estimates are both 59 knots [one minute mean] but have not yet
shifted to using an eye pattern. Recent SATCON is 75 knots, biased upwards by
ATMS and SSMIS estimates of 88 knots, with other member estimates being lower.
Intensity is analysed at 65 knots [10 minute mean].

The cyclone has been steered by a weakening mid-level ridge to the east. A
stronger middle-level ridge is now building across the mainland to the south
which is expected to become the dominant steering mechanism and accelerate the
system to the west-southwest.

The current environment is excellent for further intensification. Deep-layer
shear is low at 5 to 10 knots. Upper-level winds are highly diffluent with good
poleward outflow in particular. This is reflected in high percentages in the
SHIPS RI guidance. With roughly 12 hours until forecast landfall, further
intensification to high category 3 is forecast, however more rapid
intensification leading to a category 4 landfall cannot be ruled out.

Trevor is expected to weaken to a tropical low or a marginal category 1 system
as it crosses the Peninsula into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Wednesday.
Forecast conditions remain excellent for redevelopment in the Gulf and Trevor is
expected to redevelop and intensify quickly there. NWP models transition Trevor
into a much larger, very intense system. At this stage expect redevelopment to
at least a high-end category 3 system in the Gulf, possibly / probably higher.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

霧峰追風者

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2019-3-19 02:40
JTWC官方T值分析已達5.0

上面有說過EC對於熱帶氣旋的強度預測向來是比較少在畫大餅的

分析出T5.0，JTWC 18Z強度直升"二級颶風"( 90kts )。