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18S.Idai 內陸迴轉出海發展 於海峽再次迴轉強襲莫三比克

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霧峰追風者|2019-3-9 15:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-9 19:19 編輯

JTWC 06Z率先升格熱帶氣旋,編號18S,從回海峽發展增強中。
18S EIGHTEEN 190309 0600 16.9S 40.2E SHEM 35 1005
20190309.0600.msg-4.ir.98S.INVEST.35kts.1005mb.16.9S.40.2E.100pc.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2019-3-9 15:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-9 19:19 編輯

MFR 06Z再次開始發報,巔峰上望"強烈熱帶氣旋"。
WTIO30 FMEE 090614
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
2.A POSITION 2019/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 40.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW:  NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/09 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/10 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
DURING THE NIGHT, THE SYSTEM HAS GOT OUT IN SEA NEAR THE MOZAMBIQUE
COASTLINES. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAP UP AROUND THE CENTER WITH
INCREASING CURVATURE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD UNTIL MONDAY
STEERING BY A LOW/MID NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
ACCELERATE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY OVER MOZAMBIQUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT THE LONGITUDE OF THE TURN
WESTWARD REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM, SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY GOOD. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY MAKES A LANDING
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=
SWI_20182019.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-3-9 19:17 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-3-9 15:10
JTWC 06Z率先升格熱帶氣旋,編號18S,從回海峽發展增強中。

JTWC 首報上望"四級颶風",後期近巔峰影響莫三比克。
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 40.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 40.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.1S 40.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 17.3S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 17.6S 41.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.9S 41.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 18.3S 39.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 18.8S 37.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 19.3S 34.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090338Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WHILE TRACKING BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS WINDSAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS ON A 090618Z ASCAT-B AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE 25-30 KNOT WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED 30-35 KNOT WIND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS
WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC 18S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU
48 LEADING TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
NNNN
sh1819.gif 18S_090600sair.jpg avn0-lalo.gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-3-10 09:33 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 00Z命名"Idai",巔峰上望90kt。
WTIO31 FMEE 100100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
24H: 11/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SEMBLE MIEUX
S'ORGANISER PRES DU CENTRE, ET PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE BANDE INCURVEE
DE 07/08 TOUR. L'INTENSITE ATTEINTE A DONC PERMIS SON BAPTEME A 23Z. DEPUIS
18Z LE SYSTEME A RALENTI SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'EST, LAISSANT
PRESAGER D'UN VIRAGE EN COURS DE JOURNÉE.
AUJOURD'HUI, LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE VA FAIBLIR TANDIS QUE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER AU SUD DU CANAL. LE
SYSTEME A COMMENCE A RALENTIR, IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME VA ALORS
ACCELERER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES CÔTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EST
ENVISAGE JEUDI. CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGÉE PAR
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES MAIS LA LONGITUDE DU VIRAGE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST RESTE ENCORE UN PEU INCERTAINE AVEC UNE DISPERSION
DES MODELES SUR LA PROGRESSION VERS L'OUEST, AINSI QUE SUR LA ZONE ET LE
TIMING D'ATTERISSAGE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME SE RENFORCE. LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD. LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU
CANAL. AINSI LA PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.
SWI_20182019.png 20190310.0030.msg-4.ircolor.18S.EIGHTEEN.40kts.993mb.17.2S.42.4E.100pc.jpg

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Meow|2019-3-11 01:33 | 顯示全部樓層
迅速發展
20190310.1600.msg-1.ircolor.18S.IDAI.55kts.992mb.17.2S.43E.100pc.jpg
20190310.1544.f17.91pct91h91v.18S.IDAI.55kts.992mb.17.2S.43E.090pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2019-3-11 03:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-3-11 04:12 編輯

MFR判定10/18Z升格為熱帶氣旋,近中心最大風速達65kts。
ZCZC 356
WTIO30 FMEE 101811 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN

SWI_20182019.png

JTWC亦認同一時間近中心最大風速增強至70kts,已達辛普森颶風等級的C1。
18S IDAI
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 10, 2019:

Location: 17.2°S 43.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb

sh182019.20190310195515.gif 20190310.1800.msg-1.ir.18S.IDAI.65kts.974mb.17.2S.43.2E.100pc.jpg 索引.gif 18S_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.18S.2019.2019031000.gif



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老農民版夜神月|2019-3-11 14:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-3-11 15:20 編輯

1106Z
18S.Idai原本的數據是於C2直升C4
18S IDAI 190311 0600 17.3S 42.9E SHEM 115 937

可以見到下面三張圖時定強已是115,但一切在JTWC自己分析的T值出來後發生了改變
20190311.0530.msg-4.ir.18S.IDAI.115kts.937mb.17.3S.42.9E.100pc.jpg 20190311.0530.msg-4.ircolor.18S.IDAI.115kts.937mb.17.3S.42.9E.100pc.jpg
20190311.0530.msg-4.irbd.18S.IDAI.115kts.937mb.17.3S.42.9E.100pc.jpg

TPXS11 PGTW 110623

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI)

B. 11/0545Z

C. 17.26S

D. 42.96E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

向來迷信德法的JTWC可能看到自己分析的T值只有5.5後就又縮了回去
Idai06Z的數據變成了
18S IDAI 190311 0600 17.3S 43.0E SHEM 100 958

附註:德法5.5對應的正是102KT

20190311.0600.msg-4.ir.18S.IDAI.100kts.958mb.17.3S.43E.100pc.jpg 20190311.0600.msg-4.ircolor.18S.IDAI.100kts.958mb.17.3S.43E.100pc.jpg
20190311.0600.msg-4.irbd.18S.IDAI.100kts.958mb.17.3S.43E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2019-3-11 14:42 | 顯示全部樓層
90kt 960hPa,升格本年度第7個強烈熱帶氣旋,數量破紀錄。
SWI$11_20182019.png
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