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法國氣象局稍早評價最大風速110節、中心氣壓925百帕，基本確定為2004年Gafilo以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋。好消息是登陸點較預期稍偏北，應該可以緩解風暴潮威力。
- WTIO30 FMEE 070719
- RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
- TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
- 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20162017
- 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)
- 2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
- WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 50.6 E
- (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
- MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
- 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H
- 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
- 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
- RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
- 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
- 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 260
- 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
- 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
- 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
- 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
- 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
- 1.B FORECASTS:
- 12H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
- 24H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
- 36H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
- 48H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
- 60H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
- 72H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
- 96H: 2017/03/11 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- 120H: 2017/03/12 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
- T=CI=6.5-
- THE EYE PATTERN OF ENAWO IS IMPRESSIVE. THE EYE DEFINITION SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS ERALIER BUT REMAINS OVERALL VERY GOOD. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY, CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AGAIN AROUND ENAWO'S AYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCES.
- THE SYSTEM HAS BENDED TOWARDS DUE WEST AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE 09 TU OVER OR JUST NORTH OF ANTALAHA.
- THE STEERING FLOW ALLOW TO MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE LANDFALL, EXPECTED AT MIDDAY OF TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER OPEN WATER LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT) AROUND THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXTRATROP PROCESS SHOULD START SOON WITH A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.
- WITH A REAL TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, THE STORM SURGE IN THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN EXPECTED. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH 1-2 METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA. AT ANTALAHA WITH A BATHYMETRIE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORM SURGE EVENT, EXPECTED STORM SURGE VALUE IS WITHIN THE SAME RANGE (BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WAVE SET UP).
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