Meow

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：06-20162017 ( 09S )
名稱：Enawo

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 02 月 28 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 03 月 03 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 03 月 11 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加 安塔拉哈縣

  災情
死亡人數：78人
受災　　：17.6萬人

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局(MFR)：110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：125 kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓： 925 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
95S.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.73E


以上資料來自：法國氣象局、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

ECMWF最新預測太恐怖⋯⋯

s6815711

JTWC 20Z評級提升至Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 69.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
281410Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 27C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

s6815711

18Z時評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 010450Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 011431Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND MODERATE, BUT DECREASING,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow

ECMWF和GFS預測繼續分歧：前者再次西調掠過馬達加斯加東岸，後者以高強度直撲留尼旺。

t02436

補昨12Z MFR編號報文

WTIO30 FMEE 021322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2017/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 60.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY    DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/03 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/03/03 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/03/04 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/04 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION INSIDE OF
WHICH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINE A CENTER PRECISELY. THE ASCAT SWATH
ENABLES TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 20KT FAR FROM THE CENTER,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REACH 25KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS CONCERN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBED
AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY A NORTHEASTERN RIDGE, BENDING
GRADUALLY THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ARE FLUCTUATING ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THIS TRACK, WITH A POSSIBLE MORE
WESTWARD ORIENTATION. INDEED, A 500HPA RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR MIGHT INFLUENCE THE TRACK FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
RECENT RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SCENARIOS OF THE ECMWF'S
ENSEMBLIST FORECAST. A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A SUSTAINED AND
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, IT SHOULD REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF RANGE.=

00Z路徑預測圖

Meow

根據風場掃描升格中等熱帶風暴，持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋，一報比一報更接近馬達加斯加，最糟的情況就是登陸。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 030702
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20162017
   
7. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
    
11. (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 280
    
22. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 90
    
23. 
    
24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
    
25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
    
26. 
    
27. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
28. 12H: 2017/03/03 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
29. 24H: 2017/03/04 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
30. 36H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
31. 48H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
32. 60H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
33. 72H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
34. 
    
35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
36. 96H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
37. 120H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
38. 
    
39. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
40. T=CI=2.5+
    
41. 
    
42. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFT TOWARDS A CURVED BAND PATTERN THAT WRAPS 0.5° AROUND THE LLCC (A BIT MORE SOMETIMES). PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA OF THIS MORNIG SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
    
43. 
    
44. THE CURRENT TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEK-END, LEAVING THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ( A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE). IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE AVAILABLE MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE TOWARD A MORE ZONAL TRACK AND A DELAYED PARABOLIC TRACK, BRINGING THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
    
45. 
    
46. AS THE LIGHT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD DISAPPEAR BY THIS EVENING, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY TRACK OVER WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT.
    
47. 
    
48. THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE WORST CASE SCENARII SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LANDFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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