B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N 141.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, BUT DEVELOPING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 141547Z GCOM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC
WITH WELL DEFINED INFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES.
THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS SHEARED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC DUE
TO 5 TO 10 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMAINING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
141.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 150018Z AMSU 89 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS CURVED SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH WEAK INFLOW FROM THE
NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY
WEAK OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
ABPW10 PGTW 161400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/161400Z-170600ZJUL2016//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N 131.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 161158Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLCC TRACKS POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, INCREASING ORGANIZATION DRIVEN BY CYCLICAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED AN IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE AND RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N 131.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 161158Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LLCC TRACKS POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, INCREASING ORGANIZATION DRIVEN BY CYCLICAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED AN IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE AND RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
