t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 155.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 100404Z METOP-B IMAGE, AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL WAVE WITH A SLOWLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND LIMITED MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

目前數值皆無反應

blackcat

副高將南落甚至退居遠洋
91W會直接被副高淹沒
怎個7月份天氣好像被尼伯特搞亂了
而且未來2周無颱風生成徵兆
第2颱最晚生成? 1998年?

ha093405

看了歐洲預報，對熱帶擾動也無反應，高壓偏弱，台灣附近持續受西南風影響，今年颱風生成數，不知道最後會不會變成一個笑話。

WYS127

blackcat 發表於 2016-7-10 17:49
副高將南落甚至退居遠洋
91W會直接被副高淹沒
怎個7月份天氣好像被尼伯特搞亂了

整理了一下相關的資料，簡單做了張圖，可以發現目前離前兩名的紀錄還有2~3個禮拜，看來想破紀錄似乎沒那麼容易.....

魏章哲@FB

ha093405 發表於 2016-7-10 19:26
看了歐洲預報，對熱帶擾動也無反應，高壓偏弱，台灣附近持續受西南風影響，今年颱風生成數，不知道最後會不 ...

颱風數真的會少

ben811018

東風波的產物，沿著太平洋高壓邊緣移動，部分模式開始有反應，未來有進一步發展的趨勢，
但還需要時間觀察，可以多注意一下～

zjk369

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 138E WEST 15 KT.