簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
t02436|2015-8-21 11:37
|
顯示全部樓層
CPHC 03Z升格04C
預計12小時內命名
名稱可能是Kilo或Loke
目前預報48到72小時後會進入西太
而120小時之後再度回到中太
WTPA42 PHFO 210248
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA
94-C HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR-C THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVENTH TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON. AN EXCELLENT
2100Z ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...INCREASING CENTER
FIX CONFIDENCE AND SHOWING A FEW RAIN CONTAMINATED 25 KT WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 0000Z RANGED FROM 1.0...25 KT...FROM JTWC TO 2.0...30
KT FROM SAB. HFO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT 1.5...25 KT. GIVEN THE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION SHOWN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. FOUR-C APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/4 KT ASSIGNED.
FOUR-C LIES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A WEAK RIDGE AND IS
MOVING WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PREVALENT NEAR THE
DATELINE. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS RATHER TIGHTLY PACKED
GUIDANCE...WITH FOUR-C MEANDERING NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM TERM. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO CROSS INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. AS
STEERING FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE LONG
RANGE...FOUR-C FLIRTS WITH THE DATELINE AGAIN AT TAU 120. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...FOUR-C REMAINS TOO FAR SOUTH TO DECISIVELY RECURVE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE NUDGES FOUR-C TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT TAU
12...BUT THEN KEEPS INTENSIFICATION SLOW AFTERWARDS. SHIPS
REPRESENTS THIS TREND RATHER WELL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 15.2N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.7N 177.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.5N 177.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 178.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.0N 179.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 19.3N 179.5E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 21.0N 178.7E 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 23.1N 179.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
|
本帖子中包含更多資源
您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有賬號?立即加入
x
|