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24S.Ialy 南印度洋低緯度熱帶風暴

簽到天數: 3912 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2024-5-13 20:50 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號:11-20232024 ( 24 S )
名稱:IALY


  基本資料  
   
擾動編號日期 :2024 05 13 14
JTWC升格日期
2024 05 16 14
命名日期   
2024 05 16 14
撤編日期   
2024 00 00 00
登陸地點   
暫無


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :060 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):060 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓983 百帕


基本資料  
編號    :92 S
擾動編號日期:2024 05 13 14
撤編日期  :2024 05 00 00
92S INVEST 240513 0600 8.0S 53.9E SHEM 20 1006


20240513.0825.goes-15.vis.m.92S.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.8S.53.9E.pc.jpg





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kingchard2011|2024-5-21 00:27 | 顯示全部樓層
此熱帶風暴已存活一段時間
預計未來將逐漸減弱

補上過去颱風報文資料
trajectoire.png
MFR:
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 160651
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20232024
  5. 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 53.0 E
  8. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 315 NW: 165
  17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
  19. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  20. 12H: 2024/05/16 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  21. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 335 NW: 150
  22. 24H: 2024/05/17 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  23. STORM
  24. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 130
  25. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 95
  26. 36H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  27. STORM
  28. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 120
  29. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  30. 48H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  31. STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 130
  33. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  34. 60H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  35. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 130
  36. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  37. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  38. 72H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.0 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  39. 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 130
  40. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  41. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  42. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  43. 96H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 7.2 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  44. STORM
  45. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 140
  46. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
  47. 120H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 5.9 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  48. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 120
  49. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  50. T=CI=1.5

  51. WTIO30 FMEE 161338
  52. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  53. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  54. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20232024
  55. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  56. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
  57. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
  58. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  59. FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
  60. MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
  61. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H
  62. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
  63. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  64. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  65. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  66. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  67. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  68. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  69. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  70. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  71. 12H: 2024/05/17 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  72. STORM
  73. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  74. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  75. 24H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  76. STORM
  77. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  78. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  79. 36H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  80. STORM
  81. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
  82. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0
  83. 48H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  84. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 100
  85. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  86. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  87. 60H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  88. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 100
  89. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  90. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  91. 72H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  92. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 110
  93. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  94. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  95. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  96. 96H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  97. STORM
  98. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
  99. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75
  100. 120H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  101. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  102. T=CI=2.0+

  103. WTIO30 FMEE 161858
  104. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  105. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  106. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20232024
  107. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  108. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1800 UTC:
  109. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.2 E
  110. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  111. FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
  112. MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
  113. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
  114. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  115. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  116. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  117. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  118. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  119. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  120. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  121. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  122. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  123. 12H: 2024/05/17 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  124. STORM
  125. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  126. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  127. 24H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  128. STORM
  129. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  130. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  131. 36H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  132. STORM
  133. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
  134. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0
  135. 48H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  136. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
  137. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  138. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  139. 60H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  140. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
  141. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  142. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  143. 72H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  144. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
  145. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  146. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  147. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  148. 96H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  149. STORM
  150. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
  151. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  152. 120H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  153. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  154. T=CI=2.5-


  155. WTIO30 FMEE 170013
  156. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  157. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  158. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20232024
  159. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  160. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0000 UTC:
  161. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 51.9 E
  162. (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  163. FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  164. MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
  165. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
  166. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  167. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  168. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  169. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  170. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  171. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  172. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  173. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  174. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  175. 12H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  176. STORM
  177. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  178. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  179. 24H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  180. STORM
  181. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  182. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  183. 36H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  184. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
  185. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 75
  186. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
  187. 48H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  188. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
  189. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  190. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  191. 60H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  192. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
  193. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  194. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  195. 72H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  196. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
  197. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  198. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  199. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  200. 96H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  201. STORM
  202. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
  203. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  204. 120H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  205. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  206. T=CI=2.5-

  207. WTIO30 FMEE 170737 CCA
  208. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
  209. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  210. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  211. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20232024
  212. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  213. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0600 UTC:
  214. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
  215. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  216. FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  217. MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
  218. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
  219. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  220. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  221. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  222. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  223. 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 155
  224. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
  225. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  226. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  227. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  228. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  229. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  230. 12H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  231. STORM
  232. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 130
  233. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  234. 24H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  235. STORM
  236. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 130
  237. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 75
  238. 36H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  239. STORM
  240. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 130
  241. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 75
  242. 48H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  243. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 130
  244. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 85
  245. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  246. 60H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  247. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 130
  248. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
  249. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  250. 72H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  251. STORM
  252. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 130
  253. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
  254. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  255. 96H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  256. STORM
  257. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 130
  258. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 95
  259. 120H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  260. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  261. T=CI=3.0

  262. WTIO30 FMEE 171245
  263. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  264. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  265. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20232024
  266. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  267. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 1200 UTC:
  268. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 50.3 E
  269. (EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
  270. FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
  271. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT
  272. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H
  273. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
  274. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  275. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  276. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  277. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 110
  278. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
  279. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  280. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  281. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  282. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
  283. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  284. 12H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  285. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 295 NW: 100
  286. 24H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  287. STORM
  288. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 295 NW: 100
  289. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 65
  290. 36H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  291. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 305 NW: 110
  292. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 65
  293. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  294. 48H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  295. STORM
  296. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 110
  297. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 65
  298. 60H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 7.0 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  299. STORM
  300. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 315 NW: 110
  301. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 75
  302. 72H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  303. STORM
  304. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 110
  305. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 195 NW: 75
  306. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  307. 96H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  308. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  309. T=2.0 CI=3.0

  310. WTIO30 FMEE 171846
  311. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  312. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  313. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20232024
  314. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  315. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 1800 UTC:
  316. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 49.7 E
  317. (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  318. FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
  319. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
  320. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
  321. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
  322. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  323. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  324. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  325. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
  326. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
  327. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  328. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  329. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  330. 12H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  331. STORM
  332. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
  333. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
  334. 24H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  335. STORM
  336. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 110
  337. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
  338. 36H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  339. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
  340. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
  341. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  342. 48H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  343. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
  344. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
  345. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  346. 60H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  347. STORM
  348. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
  349. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65
  350. 72H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  351. STORM
  352. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
  353. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 65
  354. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  355. 96H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  356. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  357. T=CI=2.5+ ***THE PREVIOUS CI ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO 2.5 INSTEAD OF
  358. 3.0 FOR FRIDAY 17TH AT 06UTC AND 12UTC***

  359. WTIO30 FMEE 180051
  360. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  361. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  362. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20232024
  363. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  364. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0000 UTC:
  365. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1 S / 49.2 E
  366. (EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  367. FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
  368. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
  369. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H
  370. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  371. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  372. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  373. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  374. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  375. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  376. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  377. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  378. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  379. 12H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  380. STORM
  381. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  382. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  383. 24H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  384. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  385. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  386. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  387. 36H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  388. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  389. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  390. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  391. 48H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.4 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  392. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  393. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  394. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 0
  395. 60H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  396. STORM
  397. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  398. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  399. 72H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  400. STORM
  401. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  402. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0
  403. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  404. 96H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  405. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  406. T=CI=3.0

  407. WTIO30 FMEE 180632
  408. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  409. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  410. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20232024
  411. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  412. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0600 UTC:
  413. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.4 E
  414. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  415. FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
  416. MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
  417. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H
  418. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
  419. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  420. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  421. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  422. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  423. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  424. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  425. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  426. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  427. 12H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  428. STORM
  429. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  430. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  431. 24H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  432. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  433. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  434. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  435. 36H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  436. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  437. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  438. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  439. 48H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  440. STORM
  441. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  442. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  443. 60H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  444. STORM
  445. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  446. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  447. 72H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  448. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  449. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  450. 96H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.1 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  451. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  452. T=CI=3.0+

  453. WTIO30 FMEE 181213
  454. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  455. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  456. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20232024
  457. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  458. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1200 UTC:
  459. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.0 E
  460. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  461. FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  462. MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
  463. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
  464. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  465. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  466. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  467. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  468. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  469. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  470. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  471. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  472. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  473. 12H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  474. STORM
  475. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  476. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  477. 24H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  478. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  479. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  480. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  481. 36H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  482. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  483. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  484. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  485. 48H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  486. STORM
  487. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  488. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  489. 60H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  490. STORM
  491. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  492. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  493. 72H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  494. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  495. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  496. NIL
  497. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  498. T=CI=3.5-

  499. WTIO30 FMEE 181837
  500. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  501. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  502. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20232024
  503. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  504. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1800 UTC:
  505. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 47.1 E
  506. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  507. FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
  508. MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
  509. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
  510. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  511. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  512. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM
  513. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  514. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 150
  515. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  516. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
  517. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  518. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  519. 12H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  520. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
  521. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  522. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  523. 24H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  524. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
  525. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  526. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  527. 36H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  528. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  529. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  530. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  531. 48H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  532. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  533. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  534. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  535. 60H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
  536. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  537. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  538. 72H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  539. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
  540. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  541. NIL
  542. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  543. T=CI=3.5-

  544. WTIO30 FMEE 190035
  545. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  546. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  547. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20232024
  548. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  549. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0000 UTC:
  550. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 46.4 E
  551. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  552. FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
  553. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
  554. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
  555. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  556. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  557. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
  558. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  559. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
  560. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
  561. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
  562. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  563. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
  564. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  565. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  566. 12H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 6.8 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  567. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  568. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  569. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  570. 24H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  571. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
  572. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  573. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  574. 36H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  575. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
  576. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  577. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  578. 48H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  579. STORM
  580. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
  581. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
  582. 60H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
  583. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
  584. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55
  585. 72H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  586. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 95
  587. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  588. NIL
  589. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  590. T=CI=3.5-

  591. WTIO30 FMEE 190643
  592. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  593. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  594. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20232024
  595. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  596. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0600 UTC:
  597. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.9 E
  598. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  599. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  600. MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
  601. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
  602. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
  603. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  604. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
  605. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  606. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
  607. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
  608. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
  609. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  610. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  611. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  612. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  613. 12H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  614. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
  615. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
  616. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  617. 24H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  618. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
  619. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
  620. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  621. 36H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  622. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 0
  623. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
  624. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  625. 48H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  626. STORM
  627. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
  628. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
  629. 60H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  630. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 85
  631. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 55
  632. 72H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  633. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
  634. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  635. NIL
  636. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  637. T=CI=4.0+

  638. WTIO30 FMEE 191330 CCA
  639. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
  640. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  641. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  642. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20232024
  643. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  644. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1200 UTC:
  645. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
  646. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  647. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
  648. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
  649. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H
  650. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
  651. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  652. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
  653. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  654. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  655. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  656. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  657. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  658. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  659. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  660. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  661. 12H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  662. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 95
  663. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
  664. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  665. 24H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  666. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  667. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  668. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  669. 36H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  670. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  671. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  672. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  673. 48H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  674. STORM
  675. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  676. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  677. 60H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  678. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
  679. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85
  680. 72H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  681. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 120
  682. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  683. NIL
  684. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  685. T=3.5- CI=4.0-

  686. WTIO30 FMEE 191840
  687. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  688. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  689. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20232024
  690. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  691. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1800 UTC:
  692. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 45.1 E
  693. (SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  694. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
  695. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
  696. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
  697. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
  698. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  699. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
  700. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  701. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  702. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  703. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  704. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  705. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  706. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  707. 12H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  708. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
  709. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
  710. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  711. 24H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  712. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  713. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  714. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  715. 36H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  716. STORM
  717. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  718. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  719. 48H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  720. STORM
  721. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  722. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  723. 60H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  724. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
  725. 72H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  726. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  727. NIL
  728. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  729. T=3.5- CI=4.0-

  730. WTIO30 FMEE 200106
  731. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  732. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  733. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20232024
  734. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  735. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0000 UTC:
  736. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8 S / 44.8 E
  737. (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  738. FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  739. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  740. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  741. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
  742. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  743. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  744. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  745. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  746. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  747. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  748. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  749. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  750. 12H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  751. STORM
  752. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 85
  753. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 55
  754. 24H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 3.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  755. STORM
  756. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  757. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  758. 36H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  759. STORM
  760. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  761. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  762. 48H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  763. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  764. NIL
  765. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  766. T=3.5- CI=3.5-

  767. WTIO30 FMEE 200648
  768. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  769. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  770. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20232024
  771. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  772. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
  773. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
  774. (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  775. FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  776. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  777. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  778. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  779. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  780. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  781. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  782. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  783. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  784. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
  785. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  786. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  787. 12H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  788. STORM
  789. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  790. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  791. 24H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  792. STORM
  793. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  794. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  795. 36H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  796. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  797. 48H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  798. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  799. NIL
  800. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  801. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

  802. WTIO30 FMEE 200648
  803. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  804. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  805. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20232024
  806. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  807. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
  808. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
  809. (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  810. FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  811. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  812. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  813. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  814. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  815. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  816. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  817. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  818. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  819. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
  820. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  821. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  822. 12H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  823. STORM
  824. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  825. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  826. 24H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  827. STORM
  828. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  829. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  830. 36H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  831. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  832. 48H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  833. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  834. NIL
  835. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  836. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

  837. WTIO30 FMEE 201300
  838. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  839. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  840. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20232024
  841. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  842. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 1200 UTC:
  843. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 43.9 E
  844. (FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
  845. FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  846. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  847. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
  848. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  849. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  850. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  851. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  852. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  853. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  854. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  855. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  856. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  857. 12H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.1 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  858. STORM
  859. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  860. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  861. 24H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  862. STORM
  863. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  864. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  865. 36H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  866. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  867. 48H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  868. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  869. NIL
  870. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  871. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-
複製代碼
JTWC:
  1. 24S IALY 240520 1200 5.9S 43.7E SHEM 55 994
  2. 24S IALY 240520 0600 6.2S 44.0E SHEM 50 994
  3. 24S IALY 240520 0000 6.5S 44.5E SHEM 55 992
  4. 24S IALY 240519 1800 6.9S 44.8E SHEM 60 989
  5. 24S IALY 240519 1200 7.3S 45.3E SHEM 60 989
  6. 24S IALY 240519 0600 7.6S 45.9E SHEM 55 992
  7. 24S IALY 240519 0000 7.5S 46.6E SHEM 55 992
  8. 24S IALY 240518 1800 7.7S 47.1E SHEM 50 995
  9. 24S IALY 240518 1200 7.9S 47.8E SHEM 45 997
  10. 24S IALY 240518 0600 7.9S 48.6E SHEM 40 1002
  11. 24S IALY 240518 0000 8.0S 49.2E SHEM 40 1002
  12. 24S IALY 240517 1800 8.5S 49.9E SHEM 40 1002
  13. 24S IALY 240517 1200 8.8S 50.4E SHEM 40 1002
  14. 24S IALY 240517 0600 9.0S 51.0E SHEM 45 999
  15. 24S IALY 240517 0000 9.1S 51.8E SHEM 40 999
  16. 24S IALY 240516 1800 9.1S 52.2E SHEM 40 997
  17. 24S IALY 240516 1200 9.1S 52.5E SHEM 40 997
  18. 24S IALY 240516 0600 8.6S 52.9E SHEM 35 999
  19. 24S IALY 240516 0000 8.3S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  20. 24S IALY 240515 1800 8.1S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  21. 24S IALY 240515 1200 8.2S 53.0E SHEM 30 1005
  22. 24S IALY 240515 0600 7.9S 52.8E SHEM 30 1005
  23. 24S IALY 240515 0000 8.0S 52.4E SHEM 25 1005
  24. 24S IALY 240514 1800 8.5S 52.9E SHEM 25 1005
  25. 24S IALY 240514 1200 9.1S 53.0E SHEM 25 1004
  26. 24S IALY 240514 0600 9.6S 53.8E SHEM 20 1005
  27. 24S IALY 240514 0000 9.0S 54.3E SHEM 20 1005
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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210109
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20232024
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0000 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
  8. (FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH 7 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 195 NW: 240
  17. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 120
  18. 48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 60 NW: 55
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 4.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  24. TROPICAL STORM
  25. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 95
  26. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

  27. 24H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  28. TROPICAL STORM
  29. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 140
  30. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

  31. 36H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  32. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 130




  33. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  34. NIL


  35. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  36. T=4.0- CI=4.0-

  37. CONVECTION WITHIN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS NOT CHANGED
  38. MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24
  39. HOURS, ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES. THE SYSTEM'S PATTERN
  40. LOOKS LIKE A CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS, WITH A DIVERGENCE OF
  41. ALTITUDE STILL WELL PRESENT. THE ASCAT METOP-C SWATH AT 1813Z
  42. MEASURES AN AVERAGE WIND FORCE OF 50KT, ENABLING US TO POSITION THE
  43. CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
  44. DVORAK INTENSITY AND TO CHOOSE A MAXIMUM MEAN WIND FORCE SLIGHTLY
  45. HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES, THIS IS TO SAY 55KT.

  46. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IN COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY KEEPS
  47. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
  48. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
  49. TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE
  50. TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING
  51. ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD REDIRECT ITS TRACK NORTHWARDS.
  52. LATER, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DRIVES A WESTERLY FLOW
  53. WHICH SHOULD CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STORM
  54. DISSIPATES. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALLOW US TO
  55. ESTABLISH A CONSONSUS ON A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR A
  56. SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

  57. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  58. RATHER GOOD, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, STRONG
  59. OCEAN POTENTIAL AND, LAST BUT NOT LEAST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
  60. DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS A STRONG
  61. TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD
  62. BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
  63. LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING,
  64. UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WENESDAY.

  65. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA AND SOUTHERN
  66. SOMALIA COAST.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210657
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20232024
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
  8. (FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 220
  17. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
  18. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  22. 12H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  23. TROPICAL STORM
  24. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 205
  25. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100

  26. 24H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 1.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  27. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100





  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  29. NIL


  30. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  31. T=CI=4.0+

  32. IALY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 00 AND 06UTC.
  33. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 4.5, WITH AN EYE
  34. PATTERN BEGINNING TO FORM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
  35. IMPROVING STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A
  36. SOLID, COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE REMARKABLY
  37. RESISTANT TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. A 0602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS
  38. OF AT LEAST 55KT. THE INTENSITY AT 06UTC IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 60
  39. KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY BE TEMPORARILY
  40. REACHED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE EYE PATTERN CONTINUES. IALY IS
  41. AN EXCEPTIONALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THIS NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
  42. BASIN: IT IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF 5S/45E
  43. IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO THE
  44. KENYAN COAST).

  45. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  46. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO
  47. THE FINAL STEERING FLOW IS PROBABLY GREATER THAN FORECAST. THE TRACK
  48. HAS THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM, CLOSER TO
  49. THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
  50. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TAKEN UP BY THE
  51. LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AFRICAN
  52. COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD.

  53. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  54. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  55. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT A
  56. SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY TODAY. FROM TONIGHT, AS WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE
  57. IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, A RAPID
  58. WEAKENING TREND SHOULD SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  59. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  60. TANZANIA:
  61. - RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSE TO 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS ON PEMBA ISLAND
  62. UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  63. KENYA :
  64. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  65. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

  66. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  67. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211240
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20232024
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
  8. (FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  17. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  18. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
  19. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  22. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  23. 12H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  24. TROPICAL STORM
  25. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 165
  26. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 95

  27. 24H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  29. NIL


  30. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  31. T=CI=4.5-

  32. BETWEEN 06 AND 09UTC, IALY'S EYE PATTERN BECAME BETTER DEFINED,
  33. LEADING TO SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY RISING TO 4.5.
  34. BETWEEN 09 AND 12UTC, THE EYE THEN WARMED UP A LITTLE, LOWERING THE
  35. DT, BUT IT IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
  36. SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 09UTC IS THUS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, KEPT
  37. AS SUCH AT 12UTC BY INERTIA ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED.
  38. IALY IS THEREFORE AN HISTORICALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THE
  39. NORTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN: IT IS NOT ONLY THE FIRST TROPICAL
  40. STORM BUT ALSO THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF
  41. 5S/45E IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO
  42. THE KENYAN COAST).

  43. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  44. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER
  45. TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO THE FINAL STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK HAS
  46. THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM,
  47. CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM
  48. TONIGHT ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
  49. TAKEN UP BY LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
  50. AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD THEN
  51. NORTHEASTWARD.

  52. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  53. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  54. EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. FROM TONIGHT, WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
  55. MORE IMPACTFUL AND SHOULD START TO DISRUPT THE VORTEX AND ENABLE DRY
  56. AIR INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM. A RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THUS
  57. SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  58. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  59. TANZANIA:
  60. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  61. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  62. KENYA :
  63. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  64. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  65. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  66. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211837
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20232024
  5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1800 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
  8. (FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  17. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  18. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  22. 12H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  23. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
  24. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

  25. 24H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  26. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  27. NIL


  28. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  29. PT=4.0- CI=4.5-

  30. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED: INITIALLY
  31. WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION UP TO 14UTC, CONVECTION RAPIDLY
  32. INVADED THE CENTER, LEAVING IALY IN A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. IN
  33. THE FINAL MOMENTS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WARMED UP, LEAVING A
  34. LARGER SHARE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. IN SUCH A
  35. CONFIGURATION, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 4.0- CAN BE MADE AND, DUE TO
  36. INERTIA, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5-. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
  37. SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ITS RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND
  38. INERTIA CAN BE ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, AND PARTIALLY
  39. VALIDATED BY A SMOS DATA OF 47KT AT 1451UTC AND A SAR DATA OF 50KT AT
  40. 1524UTC, WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55KT, LEAVING IALY AT THE STAGE OF A
  41. STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

  42. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-LIMITED DUE TO ITS FAST FOLLOWING
  43. DISAPPEARANCE. WHEREAS, DURING PREVIOUS NETWORKS, THE SYSTEM
  44. CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER
  45. THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, THE LATEST
  46. ANALYSIS POINTS VALIDATE THE NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE WEAKENING OF
  47. THE SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTING FLOW DOMINATES. AS THE TRADE
  48. WINDS SKIRT THE COAST OF AFRICA, THEY SHOULD GUIDE THE TRACK
  49. NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12H. IT WILL BE
  50. INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  51. THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
  52. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS!

  53. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD SO
  54. FAR, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT
  55. ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE MODELS PREDICTED A MORE PRONOUNCED
  56. SHEAR, EXPLAINING IN PART THEIR TENDENCY TO PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
  57. (TO WHICH IS ADDED THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, A CHARACTERISTIC
  58. THAT MODELS WITH SOMEWHAT COARSE RESOLUTION FIND HARD TO GRASP), THE
  59. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
  60. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EFFECT ON VORTEX STRUCTURE. IN THE CASE
  61. OF A SMALL SYSTEM, THIS LEADS TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY,
  62. AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, THE
  63. CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET.

  64. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  65. TANZANIA:
  66. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  67. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  68. KENYA :
  69. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  70. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  71. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  72. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220037
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20232024
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0000 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
  8. (THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/6 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  17. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100

  18. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  19. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

  20. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  21. 12H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
  22. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110

  23. 24H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  24. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  25. NIL


  26. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  27. T=2.5 CI=3.5-

  28. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.
  29. REMAINING IN A CURVED BAND, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS LOSING
  30. CONSISTENCY, LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR A SHORT
  31. TIME YET. A T OF 2.5 CAN BE ESTIMATED, WHILE INERTIA KEEPS CI AT
  32. 3.5-. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WIND
  33. IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH INERTIA, AND MAXIMUM WINDS
  34. OF AROUND 40KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IALY
  35. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  36. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-TERM AS IT FASTENED TO DISAPPEAR.
  37. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE NORTHERLY
  38. TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE
  39. TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
  40. IF, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  41. THE EQUATOR, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT
  42. FORECASTS!

  43. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY
  44. DETERIORATING. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE
  45. TO THE AFRICAN COAST, THE WEAK IALY STRUCTURE IS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN
  46. ITSELF. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, IALY'S INTENSITY
  47. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE
  48. MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  49. LONGER.


  50. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  51. TANZANIA:
  52. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  53. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  54. KENYA :
  55. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  56. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
  57. WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

  58. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  59. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220646
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20232024
  5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
  8. (THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185
  17. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 75

  18. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  19. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  20. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  21. 12H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.5 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING






  22. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  23. NIL


  24. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  25. T=2.0 CI=3.0-

  26. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND IALY HAS CHANGED LITTLE BUT
  27. IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE IMAGES GPM FROM
  28. 0232 AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 0311 STILL SHOW AN EYE IN 37HGZ BUT
  29. WEAKENING, AND DRY AIR STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. IALY IS
  30. MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 35KT, BUT IALY
  31. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  32. IALY'S FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO ITS IMMINENT RAPID
  33. DISSIPATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE
  34. NORTHWARD TRACK IS BEING MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED
  35. NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL
  36. BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX
  37. WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE EQUATOR, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE THE
  38. CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT FORECASTS!

  39. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
  40. RAPIDLY. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE TO THE
  41. COAST OF AFRICA, IALY'S WEAK STRUCTURE CANNOT BE MAINTAINED. WITH
  42. CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, THE INTENSITY OF IALY
  43. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
  44. WILL BE REUNITED, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  45. LONGER.

  46. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  47. KENYA AND SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  48. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

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