alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 W
擾動編號日期：2024 年 05 月 15 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 05 月 00 日 00 時
93W INVEST 240515 0000 2.8N 143.4E WPAC 15 0

周子堯@FB

JTWC 21/18Z評級Low，對流有增強趨勢

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N
137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210432Z ATMS NPP 165.5 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
A BROAD AREA OF TURNING MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST, WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

JTWC發布TCFA
從向日葵9號衛星雲圖來看
螺旋性已相當明顯~

1. WTPN21 PGTW 221430
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
   
4. RMKS/
   
5. 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
   
6. 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3N 135.3E TO 8.6N 131.0E
   
7. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
   
8. ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
   
9. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
   
10. IMAGERY AT 221130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    
11. NEAR 5.5N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
    
12. KNOTS.
    
13. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    
14. NEAR 4.8N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
    
15. SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    
16. 93S OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
    
17. FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 220908Z SSIMS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED
    
18. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
    
19. FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
    
20. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
    
21. 10KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
    
22. AS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT FEEDS IN TO A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
    
23. NORTHWEST THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
    
24. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
    
25. NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
26. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
    
27. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
    
28. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
    
29. THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    
30. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    
31. 231430Z.
    
32. //
    
33. NNNN

複製代碼

alu

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A  
220214Z ATMS NPP 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT FEEDS IN TO A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

alu

WTPN21 PGTW 221430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3N 135.3E TO 8.6N 131.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
93S OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 220908Z SSIMS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
AS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT FEEDS IN TO A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231430Z.
//
NNNN

krichard2011

JMA發布GW

1. WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
   
3. NAME  TD
   
4. ANALYSIS
   
5. PSTN  230000UTC 06.5N 134.0E FAIR
   
6. MOVE  W SLOWLY
   
7. PRES  1006HPA
   
8. MXWD  030KT
   
9. GUST  045KT
   
10. FORECAST
    
11. 12HF  231200UTC 06.8N 130.5E 55NM 70%
    
12. MOVE  W 17KT
    
13. PRES  1002HPA
    
14. MXWD  030KT
    
15. GUST  045KT
    
16. 24HF  240000UTC 09.3N 128.4E 70NM 70%
    
17. MOVE  NW 16KT
    
18. PRES  1000HPA
    
19. MXWD  035KT
    
20. GUST  050KT
    
21. 48HF  250000UTC 12.5N 125.9E 110NM 70%
    
22. MOVE  NW 10KT
    
23. PRES  998HPA
    
24. MXWD  040KT
    
25. GUST  060KT
    
26. 72HF  260000UTC 15.3N 124.0E 140NM 70%
    
27. MOVE  NNW 08KT
    
28. PRES  990HPA
    
29. MXWD  050KT
    
30. GUST  070KT
    
31. 96HF  270000UTC 17.9N 125.4E 180NM 70%
    
32. MOVE  NNE 07KT
    
33. PRES  985HPA
    
34. MXWD  055KT
    
35. GUST  080KT
    
36. 120HF 280000UTC 21.7N 129.1E 240NM 70%
    
37. MOVE  NE 13KT
    
38. PRES  985HPA
    
39. MXWD  055KT
    
40. GUST  080KT =

複製代碼

alu

熱帶性低氣壓TD01
現況
2024年05月23日14時

中心位置在北緯 6.8 度，東經 131.6 度
過去移動方向 西
過去移動時速 46公里
中心氣壓 1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 24 公里
預測 05月23日20時
中心位置在北緯 7.5 度，東經 130.5 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 50 公里
預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 29 公里
預測 05月24日02時
中心位置在北緯 8.5 度，東經 129.3 度
中心氣壓1003百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 100 公里
預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 25 公里
預測 05月24日08時
中心位置在北緯 9.3 度，東經 128.2 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 18 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢
預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 16 公里
預測 05月24日14時
中心位置在北緯 9.8 度，東經 127.5 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 90 公里
70%機率半徑 140 公里
預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 18 公里
預測 05月25日02時
中心位置在北緯 11.3 度，東經 126.3 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 230 公里
預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為

北北西 時速 20 公里
預測 05月25日14時
中心位置在北緯 13.2 度，東經 125.2 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 270 公里
預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為

北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 05月26日14時
中心位置在北緯 16.2 度，東經 124.4 度
中心氣壓980百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 300 公里
預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為

東北 時速 20 公里
預測 05月27日14時
中心位置在北緯 19.7 度，東經 127.0 度
中心氣壓975百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 30 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 38 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 150 公里
十級風暴風半徑 50 公里
70%機率半徑 500 公里
預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為

東北 時速 35 公里
預測 05月28日14時
中心位置在北緯 24.8 度，東經 133.1 度
中心氣壓980百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 150 公里
70%機率半徑 650 公里

krichard2011

PAGASA 的雷達已隱約可見中心

不過目前JMA尚未升格