krichard2011

這隻螺旋性相當不錯
GFS支持未來強度不弱
MFR也偏向支持發展 後期上看ITC

WTIO30 FMEE 051314
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 64.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DEEP CONVECTION
AS STRENGTHENED WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATIONS REGARDS TO DIURNAL CYCLE.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE LATEST MW IMAGERY SUGGEST A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OF THE STRUCTURE.
THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NOW ALTHOUGH
MONSOON INFLOW IS INDIRECT AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY EXIST
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT LEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PASS TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND, THE RIDGE WEAKEN AND A BROAD BAROMETRIC
COL SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF 20S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIE WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND COULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN EGDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW BY THAT TIME.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES (CF ENSEMBLE FORECAST FROM
ECMWF SHOWING SOME STRONG SPREAD) O

t02436

MFR編號熱帶擾動13號
不看好發展

** WTIO30 FMEE 011311 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  13

2.A POSITION 2015/04/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.3 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/02 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/04/02 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/04/03 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2015/04/03 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2015/04/04 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/04 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.

AN IMPLUSE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ACCUR SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO THE
IMPROVING POLAR DIVERGENCE.
THE CENTER IS CHALLING TO LOCATE, AND HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THAKS TO
DATA ASCAT OF 03H50Z AND LAST AVAILABLE MICRO-WAVES DATA ET 09H59Z.

FOR THE NEXT DAYS, LOW LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH A
WEAKENING OF THE MONSOON FLOW BECOMING MORE INDIRECT.

AVAILABLE NWP SHOW A GLOBAL WESTWARD TRACK, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING, WITH A DISSIPATING DEPRESSION NORTH TO MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS.

THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
69.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S 74.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK LLCC. A 272027Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE WEAK LLCC STILL DEVELOPING, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.