22S.Joalane 漸入高緯逐漸轉化中

蜜露 · 2015-4-8 11:57

GFS MFR JTWC看好這隻發展
JTWC上望140kts ...

不過經過昨晚 ,他的開眼方式很冒險..
跟前4個Cat.5相比 , 這隻發展可能會不如預期

Meow · 2015-4-8 02:59

看起來差不多，可是法國就認為上升 20 節，成為 80 節的熱帶氣旋了。路徑較偏離羅德里格斯，但強度上望強烈熱帶氣旋上限……

WTIO30 FMEE 071838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 63.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/08 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/08 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/09 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/09 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/10 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/10 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/12 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.0+
JOALANE HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
IT SHOWS HOWEVER SINCE 1700Z AN ELONGATED AND RATHER RAGGED EYE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN REDUCED THANKS TO 1737Z ASCAT SWATH AND MSLP HAS BEEN THE
REFORE RE-CALCULATED.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36H IN REL
ATIONSHIP WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS SOUTH.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN AS A COL TAKE ITS PLACE.
JOALANE SHOULD THEN PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS FROM SATURDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM I
S SHIFTING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD TAKE PLACE POLEWARD AND SHOULD BE EFFICI
ENT UP TO FRIDAY.
FROM FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EXPERIENCE THE DOUBLE CONST
RAINTS OF STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT SOUTH
OF 21S.
JOALANE KEEPS ON REPRESENTING A SERIOUS THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.

t02436 · 2015-4-7 21:45

JTWC 12Z 評價 80節

MFR 06Z 升強烈熱帶風暴
12Z 評價60KT
持續上望巔峰110KT

** WTIO30 FMEE 071302 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE)

2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 62.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
AN BANDING EYE APPEARED AT 1030Z.
THE DT AT 12Z IS 4.5.
THE FINAL T IS 4.0 ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

JOALANE SEEMS TO INITIATE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AS FORCASTED, AND IS
ABOUT TO ACHIEVE ITS CLOCKWISE LOOP.

THE MOVEMENT OF JOALANE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SLOW FOR THE NETX
24/36H, DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH.
FROM THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A COL
SHOULD TAKE ITS PLACE, AND THE SYSTEM 13 SHOULD MOVE MORE CLEARLY
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK.

OVER THIS FORCASTED TRACK, GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE OHC IS SUFFICIENT UP TO ABOUT 21S.
THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO SHIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, A UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD TAKE PLACE
POLEWARD. THIS CHANNEL SHOULD BE EFFICIENT UP TO FRIDAY 10 OR
SATURDAY 11. ON SUNDAY 12, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

JOALANE IS ALSO A SERIOUS THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.=

底層大致構建完成
等待高層清空

Meow · 2015-4-7 19:48

半天不見變得如此面目猙獰:L

Meow · 2015-4-7 03:13

命名 Joalane，上看強烈熱帶氣旋，而且能維持不短的時間。

WTIO20 FMEE 061842
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/04/2015 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 61.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/04/07 AT 18 UTC:
14.9 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
PREVIOUS POSITION RELOCATED FURTHER NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING
AND HAS BEEN NAMED AT 17Z BY THE NWS OF MAURITIUS.=

krichard2011 · 2015-4-6 23:17

反而MFR一度看好的這隻
現在底層反而疑似呈現半裸狀態...
高低層沒有整合起來

t02436 · 2015-4-6 09:50

JTWC升格22S
上望100Kts

MFR暫上望85KT
預估12小時內命名

** WTIO30 FMEE 060053 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  13

2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 63.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED ON DDEGRE MORSE
NORTHWARDS.

THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFIYING SLOWLY. THE DEEP CONVECTION KEEP ON BUT
DO NOT FRANCKLY IMPROVE ITS ORGANISATION, AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEFINITION  REMAINS QUITE POOR.

THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NOW ALTHOUGH
MONSOON INFLOW IS INDIRECT AND A  EASTERLY CONSTRAINT (IN THE SAME
DIRECTION THAN THE DEPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM) MAY EXIST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH A BUILDING
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW ON TUESDAY, THEN WITH A SECOND ONE POLARWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LIMITATED FACTOR MAY BE THE ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL IN
RELATION SHIP WITH THE LOW DEPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT LEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PASS
TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND, THE RIDGE WEAKEN AND A BROAD  BAROMETRIC COL
SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF 25S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIE WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND COULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN EGDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW BY THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES (CF ENSEMBLE FORECAST FROM
ECMWF SHOWING SOME STRONG SPREAD) ON THE TIMING AND THE LOCALIZATION
OF THE CHANGE IN THE TRACK, AND THEN ALSO ON THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION.=