krichard2011

JTWC 已經發布 TCFA
紅外線雲圖現在來看 型態還算相當不錯
不過GFS不怎麼支持發展 反倒到了高緯
強度則略為增強 不過不確定那時是否還存有熱帶性質

1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
   
2. 154.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
   
3. NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
   
4. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
   
5. CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
   
6. ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 162104Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP
   
7. BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 162321Z ASCAT
   
8. IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS.
   
9. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
   
10. (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ENHANCED
    
11. POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VWS WILL DECREASE
    
12. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    
13. ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    
14. TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    
15. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

複製代碼

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3S 152.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. A
152256Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED TROUGHING ACROSS THE CORAL SEA
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND FIELDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 152352Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LINEAR AND LIMITED IN DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS預報將擦邊澳洲東岸陸地