簽到天數: 1989 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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ben811018|2012-6-28 23:20
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TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED AND DEEPENED FROM THE SHEARED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOW HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO. THIS DEVELOPMENT INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD MULTIPLE VORTICES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW DOMINANT VORTEX EMERGING REMAINS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LAOAG, 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE VWS HAS WEAKENED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.
簡單來說 JTWC認為目前CDO正在建立 且周圍風切在過去六小時呈現減弱的狀態
此外 目前07W有多個渦旋及一個新形成的渦旋存在
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