s6815711

大方向還是以登陸西澳為主
未來強度不是很被看好


還有4天可以待在OHC還夠用的海面上

周子堯@FB

JTWC2100Z升格為熱帶氣旋(02S)

s6815711

JTWC 09Z評級提升至High

WTXS21 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.0S 115.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190830Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 115.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY
326 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 190657Z SSMI 85 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED CENTER. A 190118Z ASCAT PASS DISPLAYED A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO
THE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND SST 29-30C. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200900Z.//
NNNN

Meow

已編號07U，東南側具備35kt持續風力。



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0739 UTC 19/12/2016
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 114.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [208 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1200: 16.5S 114.7E:     040 [080]:  035  [065]:  994
+12:  19/1800: 16.6S 114.4E:     055 [100]:  035  [065]:  993
+18:  20/0000: 16.6S 114.1E:     065 [125]:  040  [075]:  991
+24:  20/0600: 16.4S 113.9E:     080 [145]:  040  [075]:  991
+36:  20/1800: 15.8S 113.8E:     100 [180]:  040  [075]:  991
+48:  21/0600: 15.4S 114.2E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  990
+60:  21/1800: 15.2S 114.5E:     140 [255]:  045  [085]:  987
+72:  22/0600: 14.9S 114.9E:     155 [290]:  045  [085]:  988
+96:  23/0600: 15.8S 116.5E:     200 [370]:  045  [085]:  988
+120: 24/0600: 18.1S 119.5E:     290 [535]:  040  [075]:  992
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 07U has developed to the north of WA.

Dvorak initial classification of 1.5 at 181800 UTC. In the last 3 hrs curved
band wraps of between 0.5 and 0.6 have been obtained and would yield DTs of 2.5
to 3.0. Latest imagery showed a slight weakening in the curved band. DT
constrained to 2.0. FT/CI set to 2.0. Intensity set to 35 knots with gales in
the SE quadrant.

ASCAT at 0120 UTC showed 35 knot winds in the southeast quadrant.

CIMSS at 0300 UTC showed the system in a shear ridge with shear estimated
between 10 and 20 knots.

SSTs in the area are between 29 and 30C.

07U has developed from a surge in the monsoon NW flow. The low may develop into
a tropical cyclone on Tuesday and is expected to be slow moving for the next 2
to 3 days. There is considerable model divergence on the intensity of the
system, particularly in the longer term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.