t02436

JTWC評級Low

  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S
167.9E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING INTO BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 081001Z
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE LLCC HAS CONSOLIDATED FROM AN AREA OF
TROUGHING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

FMS編號09F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 072320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 09F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.4S 170.6E AT
072100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT, HOWEVER, ORGANIZATION IS POOR.
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500HPA. TD09F
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.