A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
B. 19/2100Z
C. 15.19S
D. 119.21E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1655Z 14.88S 120.08E ATMS
19/1820Z 14.95S 119.47E SSMI
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET/PT N/A. DBO DT.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0116 UTC 19/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcus
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 123.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [274 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 19/0600: 14.9S 122.7E: 030 [060]: 060 [110]: 981
+12: 19/1200: 14.9S 121.7E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 973
+18: 19/1800: 14.8S 120.6E: 055 [105]: 075 [140]: 970
+24: 20/0000: 14.6S 119.4E: 070 [130]: 080 [150]: 966
+36: 20/1200: 14.5S 116.7E: 090 [165]: 090 [165]: 957
+48: 21/0000: 14.4S 113.7E: 110 [200]: 100 [185]: 947
+60: 21/1200: 14.8S 111.1E: 130 [235]: 110 [205]: 936
+72: 22/0000: 15.7S 108.8E: 145 [270]: 120 [220]: 923
+96: 23/0000: 19.7S 106.7E: 190 [355]: 120 [220]: 922
+120: 24/0000: 24.8S 106.7E: 280 [515]: 080 [150]: 960
REMARKS:
At 0000 UTC Monday, TC Marcus was located using radar and microwave imagery.
Marcus moved offshore from the NW Kimberley coast around 12 UTC Sunday.
Dvorak: Shear pattern on EIR [1/3 deg into strong T gradient] yields a DT of
3.5. Curved band wrap of 1.0 on VIS yields a DT of 3.5. Intensity set to 50
knots. CIMSS/NESDIS ADT was 3.7. SATCON was 67 knots [1 min mean] at 22 UTC.
TC_SSMIS at 1955 UTC and 2208 UTC showed deep convection to the west and
southwest of the centre with evidence of a slightly tilted vortex with the E/NE
shear. A band of deep convection was also located to the north and northwest of
the system.
CIMSS shear was about ENE 10 knots at 21 UTC. There was good equatorward and
poleward outflow and upper divergence.
Ocean Heat Content is favourable and SSTs are around 30C along the forecast
track. NWP is in strong agreement with a mid level ridge steering the system
towards the west over the next few days.
TC Marcus is forecast to intensify into a category 3, severe tropical cyclone
later on Monday or early Tuesday. Further intensification to category 4 and then
category 5 is possible by Wednesday as it continues to track towards the west.
From Wednesday the ridge will move eastwards and an approaching upper level
trough will help steer the system towards the southwest then towards the south
on Thursday.
As Marcus tracks towards the south on Friday it should start to weaken with
decreasing SSTs and increasing wind shear.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
JTWC 00Z強度升一級颶風。
TXXS23 KNES 190050
TCSSIO
A. 15S (MARCUS)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 14.7S
D. 123.7E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMI/SSMIS/GMI
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 1.4 DEG WELL DEFINED CDO, BUT DATA IS UNREPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING CLOUD FEATURES. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
TPXS12 PGTW 180300
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 14.43S
D. 127.36E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/2215Z 14.23S 127.95E SSMS
18/0037Z 14.27S 127.72E MMHS