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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2016-2-20 04:39 編輯
JTWC竟然上望160kt了，南半球還沒有這種記錄。:lol
- WTPS31 PGTW 192100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
- RMKS/
- 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027
- 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- ---
- WARNING POSITION:
- 191800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 178.9W
- MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
- POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
- POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
- PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 178.9W
- ---
- FORECASTS:
- 12 HRS, VALID AT:
- 200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
- ---
- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
- 201800Z --- 17.1S 177.2E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
- ---
- 36 HRS, VALID AT:
- 210600Z --- 17.4S 175.8E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
- ---
- EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
- 48 HRS, VALID AT:
- 211800Z --- 17.7S 175.0E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
- ---
- 72 HRS, VALID AT:
- 221800Z --- 18.9S 174.8E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
- ---
- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
- ---
- 96 HRS, VALID AT:
- 231800Z --- 22.4S 175.9E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
- ---
- 120 HRS, VALID AT:
- 241800Z --- 25.8S 176.7E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- ---
- REMARKS:
- 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.5W.
- TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
- EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
- OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
- IMAGERY, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI AND A 191815Z SSMIS
- 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
- SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
- THE PAST 6-HOURS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
- ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
- UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
- ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
- (SSTS) OVER 31 CELSIUS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
- THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
- BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN SLOWING, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
- STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING MORE SHARPLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER TAU
- 48 IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND CONCURRENT
- DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
- WINSTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
- AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE,
- PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
- COAST OF THE NORTHERN FIJI ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 12, TC WINSTON WILL
- WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ONCE OVER
- OPEN WATERS BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A
- SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING
- TREND AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
- HIGHER VWS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
- GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING
- PATTERN AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LEADING TO HIGH
- CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
- HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
- 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
- NNNN
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