blackcat

新報上調至80kts
預測到換日線還有60kts
也就是說成為今年西太第一颱的機率增加
可以來開譯名競猜了

蜜露

真是不得了 , 底層比之前還好. 風眼也很小..這次應該是小眼

上次是用卷的. 這次應該是塌的.







不過最近的時間點,底層有出問題了. 右邊底層破了
最近的高層來看. 風眼快要賭了
(上圖這張高層是4小時前最好的時間)




最近風切變強了. 偏南移動.開始減弱
後期進入西太 數值顯示重新加強

krichard2011

向日葵八號 台灣時間稍早5點40分拍攝到的Pali 風眼相當清晰
而目前結構看似受到了乾空氣的干擾 底層傷得不輕
但部分模式仍預測 這個颶風後期有可能達到高強度

asus5635

Last Warning?感覺他過不了界了...

WTPA41 PHFO 142042
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
1100 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016

IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT PALI
IS EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYMORE. THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOWED THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED...APPEARING MORE
LIKE A NNW-TO-SSE ORIENTED TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE RECENT BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHAT MIGHT STILL BE A LOW LEVEL
CENTER CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB AS WELL AS THE UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS ARE THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING A 30 KT
INTENSITY. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS TRACK EVEN CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH FOR SOME TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z  2.0N 172.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0600Z  1.8N 173.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

t02436

被風切切死了....
CPHC發出最後一報

WTPA41 PHFO 150244
TCDCP1

REMNANTS OF PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 14 2016

DATA FROM THE 2117 UTC ASCAT METOP-B PASS...AS WELL AS FROM LAST
NIGHT/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
TODAY...SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PALI HAS BECOME
HIGHLY DISRUPTED AND ELONGATED...AND IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO
DEFINITIVELY LOCATE A CLOSED CENTER. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DECLARED A REMNANT AT THIS TIME. THE ASCAT PASS DID SHOW A FEW
BELIEVABLE 25 KT WIND BARBS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
PALI AND SO THAT IS BEING USED FOR THE INTENSITY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRESSURE PERTURBATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF PALI DISSIPATING ON THE EQUATOR...
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT PALI
COULD INSTEAD HEAD WESTWARD AND REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS AWAY FROM
THE SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY...BUT THE
DISTURBED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ON PALI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z  1.7N 173.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

部分數值看好將重新增強，CPHC表示還要再觀望....