甜心

:o這隻強度一直滿看好的雖然它附近還是有點風切干擾但至今已經轉弱很多，目前只要穩定往西走短時間內乾空氣的影響不是很明顯。

後期可能靠近夏威夷東方海面趨時若是方向角度北轉就可能受到較多乾空氣影響其強度發展，不過現階段還是再觀察看看它的強度變化跟未來發展狀況。

KINGRIC

型態相當漂亮 大致是 W 環 + WMG 眼
稍早速報強度以提升至 C4 125 KT
不過稍早底層已有疑似開始建立起外眼牆的跡象
暗示可能即將進入一個眼牆置換的週期

EP, 13, 2015082906,   , BEST,   0, 122N, 1244W, 125,  943, HU,  64, NEQ,   25,   20,   20,   25, 1010,  180,  10,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     JIMENA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 019,

KINGRIC

NHC 這報強度升至130KT
這報更上看五級颶風
最新底層內外眼已經分離
再過不久應該就有可能會開始眼牆置換了 NHC 報文中也有提及
但短期來看目前環境相當的良好 置換上應該不會有太大的問題...

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290852
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with
a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus
outflow in all quadrants.  The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,
a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.
While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for
further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause
fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,
Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next
several days.  A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic
and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less
conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.
The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the
statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on
the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/8.  Jimena's heading should
become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general
direction for the next several days while it moves around the
subtropical ridge.  As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around
140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96
hours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new
track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to
the adjustment made on the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
72H  01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

蜜露

現在換日縣以東海面上有3個颶風活躍

這是Jimena 稍早置換前較好的結構




已經提升至Cat.4  130kts 的強度(強颱!)
底層已經開始置換了.  前方環境都是無風切.

置換成功還有機會加強.
NHC最新一報是上看Cat.5  140kts





這是未來的數值預報.
表示Jimena他達到較高強度還能維持2天左右.
夏威夷不只要關注旁邊的Ignacio. 還要堤防一下Jimena的動態

KINGRIC

目前正處在眼牆置換的階段
但從紅外線雲圖來看的話
風眼仍非常清晰 意味著內眼牆仍相當頑固
未來還是要等到內眼牆崩了才有機會置換完成
另外附上太空人油井 亀美也在ISS拍到的 Jimena 照片
轉貼自油井 亀美也 twitter

蜜露

前一次置換一天,終於在度增強. 強度升回130kts

然後又開始置換....
但這次置換很完美. 內眼快要消失了.

置換後,風眼會稍微變大

第二張圖置換可看出還很順利









這個颶風環境還是很好..除了OHC很低. 其他都還可以



未來巔峰幾乎存觀賞性. 和原先GFS預測一樣.有3天維持巔峰強度
而未來可能會影響到夏威夷的天氣.  強度到時估計已經較弱.

KINGRIC

基本上巔峰已經過很久了
不過其底層風眼仍是相當的完整
不過估計未來將會逐步減弱

另外這張是8/30 NPP VIIRS 拍到的影像
應該算是最接近巔峰的一張

蜜露

(遺漏的)

希梅娜的巔峰美圖