t02436

跨洋前命名HALOLA




命名報

WTPA42 PHFO 110228
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM
JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE-C HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.

SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENTLY RATHER LOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SST
VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS
BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING ON DAYS
4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 11.5N 173.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 11.7N 174.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  12/0000Z 12.2N 176.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  12/1200Z 13.0N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  13/0000Z 13.8N 178.9E   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  14/0000Z 15.6N 174.4E   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  15/0000Z 17.3N 169.9E   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 18.6N 165.4E   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

蜜露

EC 很看好哈洛娜的強度,進入西太可能會走很長一段時間西行
而且環境都是低風切.

jwpk9899

熱帶風暴Halola持續西移 預估在今晚至明晨就會進入西太平洋將成為今年第12號颱風 中文譯名有待氣象局發報
哈羅拉、赫勒拉、哈洛娜、哈歐娜、哈羅娜、安羅拉、哈洛拉、豪歐拉、郝蘿拉
以上都是論壇大家認為可能的譯名 這些名子會不會有正解  還是cwb又神英文發作呢 讓我們看下去

ps:預估以輕颱上限進入西太平洋



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ALONG
THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME AS INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED LOW
SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HALOLA IS FORECAST
TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 11.0N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 11.4N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 12.1N 178.9E   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 12.8N 176.6E   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 13.6N 174.2E   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 15.2N 169.7E   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 16.9N 165.1E   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 18.6N 160.6E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$

BlankCat

大陸官方譯名「哈洛拉」
相信大陸和香港往後的報告都會使用
台灣會否跟隨相同寫法就要遲點才知道

ben811018

【遠洋訪客將到訪 １２號颱風將命名】
中太平洋上有兩個熱帶風暴正在發展，其中「HALOLA」即將在今天深夜到明天清晨之間跨越國際換日線進入西北太平洋，
將成為今年第１２號颱風。而後頭的「IUNE」正在通過夏威夷南方海域，也有機會在週五到週六間進入西北太平洋。


「HALOLA」強度正逐漸增強，進入西北太平洋後巔峰強度可達中度颱風規模，
預計將沿著副熱帶高壓邊緣進行，對西太平洋周邊國家不會有威脅。

t02436

CPHC提升風速至50節
預計18Z以後才有機會進西太

WTPA42 PHFO 120850
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HALOLA DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS PROBABLY LOCATED ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 4.0
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
CYCLES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
AS WELL. THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS REASONABLY
WELL-CLUSTERED ABOUT THE EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND CURRENT
VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS...LGEM AND IVCN CONSENSUS ALL BRING THE
CYCLONE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SOON
AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...POSSIBLY DUE
TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 11.5N 178.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  12/1800Z 12.2N 179.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  13/0600Z 13.0N 178.1E   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 13.8N 175.9E   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/0600Z 14.6N 173.7E   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/0600Z 16.3N 169.4E   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/0600Z 18.5N 165.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 20.5N 161.0E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

JMA發布SW

STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 15N 176E 15N 180E 13N 180E 13N 176E 15N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED
BY 13N 176E 13N 180E 11N 180E 11N 176E 13N 176E FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

蜜露

哈洛拉底層在建立眼牆,不過她的開眼發展讓我有點擔心..

左側也太薄了..感覺有點裸的錯覺

不過他即將進入西太平洋





不過環境很好.幾乎無風切
看好進入西太..可能有機會早向160E位置  (21世紀伊歐佳後走最遠)

asus5635

CPHC最新一報表示已跨洋
下一報由JMA發報

WTPA42 PHFO 122055
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN AT 3.0
FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 3.5 AT HFO. CIMSS SATCON SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT...AND AN AVERAGE OF THE FIXES AND SATCON
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN A BRIEF EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY
BETWEEN 1230 AND 1500 UTC AND A 1827 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS RELIED UPON
TO ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.

ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO
DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE LLCC...INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AT
300/11 KT. WHILE RATHER STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 30N...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS BEING
CAUSED BY A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INDUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 900 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HALOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST
RUNS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HALOLA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 83 F WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY THREE. DURING THIS
TIME...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE A
DISRUPTION TO THE OUTFLOW IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
HALOLA SHOULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HALOLA WILL INTENSIFY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR ICON AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON
TOMORROW.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 12.8N 179.9E   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 13.5N 178.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 14.4N 176.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 15.2N 174.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 172.3E   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 17.6N 168.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 18.7N 164.0E   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 19.8N 159.5E   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE