簽到天數: 3178 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-6-27 10:13 編輯
JTWC評級升格為medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N
159.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CURVED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN OLDER 261002Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A VERY BROAD 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION
THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 20 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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