蜜露

這個長的好像Wilma ....

難道要挑戰東太針眼魔王?







ADT 升了.

Raw 最高7.3

toby

目前JTWC最高上堪僅四級颶風，不過個人認為有C5的可能性。

t02436

NHC 15Z 評價115節
站上四級颶風
巔峰更上望五級颶風 140節。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 031444
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Blanca has rapidly intensified since yesterday and the initial
intensity has been set at 115 kt. This is an increase in
the winds of 60 kt since yesterday at 1200 UTC. The initial
intensity is based on objective and subjective T-numbers which have
reached T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. The hurricane has developed a
distinct pinhole eye in both IR and visible images surrounded by
very deep convection.  There is an opportunity for Blanca to
intensify further since the hurricane is located within an ideal
environment of low shear and high ocean heat content as indicated by
statistical-dynamical models. In addition, the Rapid Intensification
Index remains extremely high, and this has been the case during the
past 24 to 36 hours. Beyond 48 hours, the hurricane will encounter
lower SSTs and a gradual weakening should begin.

Blanca is currently trapped within weak steering currents and the
cyclone has barely moved since yesterday and little motion is
anticipated today. During the next 24 hours, the hurricane should
begin a northwestward track with some increase in forward speed as a
high pressure system amplifies over the southwestern Unites States
and Mexico, and a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
very closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models.
Since Blanca is a potential threat to Baja California in a few
days, a reconnaissance aircraft will likely investigate the
cyclone on Friday.

Blanca is the earliest second major hurricane to form in the
eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in 1971.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 12.4N 104.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 12.5N 104.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 13.1N 105.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 14.2N 105.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 15.7N 107.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 18.8N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 21.5N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 24.3N 111.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

系統周圍幾無乾空氣


前方OHC相當驚人


海溫更高達攝氏31度


前景相當優越

krichard2011

可見光 美不勝收
引樓上... 環境相當優越
加上未來 24 小時移動速度相當緩慢
這段時間將會待在環境優良的區域
現在眼溫已經上升到WMG
預期入夜之後 對流可能會重新加強
挑戰史上最早五級颶風 機會看來是不低
數值甚至上看145以上

krichard2011

看起來可能有被乾空氣干擾
而且根據NHC的報告
湧升流可能也是造成她對流減弱的其中一個因素
目前風眼也有填塞的趨勢
是否有眼強置換的情形
由於底層沒有資料 目前也暫時無法得知

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 040244
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Blanca's convection has continued to decrease in intensity this
evening, and the eye observed in infrared satellite imagery has been
filling.  Dvorak T-numbers have dropped across the board, but the
intensity is being held at 120 kt based on a blend of current
intensity numbers.  Microwave imagery does not show the development
of concentric eyewalls, which often leads to disruptions in
intensification, but an 0030Z SSMIS pass did indicate that some dry
air may be wrapping into the circulation.  There's also the
possibility that upwelling of cooler water could be an issue, but
it's impossible to know that in real time.

The hurricane has been drifting southwestward during the past 6-12
hours.  Model guidance is in agreement that Blanca should begin
to accelerate toward the northwest on Thursday in response to a
amplifying mid-level trough along the U.S. west coast and building
high pressure over northern Mexico.  However, some of the track
models (most notably the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL) have again shifted
westward a bit.  As a result, the updated NHC track forecast is
slightly west of the previous forecast between 72-120 hours.

Despite the hurricane's recent convective changes, the microwave
data showed that the eyewall remains intact, and low vertical shear
and a generally moist environment should be conducive to support
further strengthening during the next 36 hours.  In addition, once
Blanca begins moving toward the northwest, it would escape any
potential areas of upwelled cooler water.  The GFS, ECMWF, SHIPS,
and LGEM all show Blanca peaking in intensity at 36 hours, and the
updated NHC intensity forecast follows suit by showing a maximum
intensity right near the category 4/5 boundary Friday morning.
After that, increasing shear, cooler water, and a drier, more stable
atmosphere should lead to rapid weakening, especially after 72
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 12.0N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 12.6N 105.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 13.7N 106.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 19.1N 110.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 21.9N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 24.9N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

ben811018

強度持續增強
東太兩個氣旋，兩個都可達到Ｃ４
不簡單～

krichard2011

很明顯的捲到乾空氣了 NHC 強度大砍 降到2級颶風
不過近幾個小時 眼牆有開始重新建立起來的趨勢
如果成功的話 風眼應該會比之前大上許多
環境上算是許可 仍有機會再重新增強
目前應該算是雲捲風眼





但倒是NHC就轉向不是很看好了...
NHC認為是湧升流與眼強置換 是導致她減弱的主要因素
預期他逐漸北轉之後 會逐漸遠離被她降溫的海水
因此有機會再度增強 但不如昨天...

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041444
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

It appears that the combination of upwelling and an eyewall
replacement cycle has resulted in significant weakening of
Blanca during the past 18 hours or so. The eye is not as clear as
it was yesterday, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric
around what is left of the eye. Based on decreasing subjective and
objective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to
95 kt at this time. However, as soon as Blanca moves out of the area
where the upwelling has occurred in 12 to 24 hours, another round of
strengthening is anticipated, but not as much as indicated
yesterday. The NHC forecast is consistent with the SHIPS intensity
guidance, which still insists on forecasting restrengthening as the
cyclone moves again over warm waters. Beyond 48 hours, increasing
shear and cool waters should induce gradual weakening as Blanca
approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite fixes indicate that Blanca has begun to move slowly toward
the northwest or 325 degrees at 3 knots. The subtropical ridge which
has been blocking the motion of the cyclone is forecast to shift
eastward by most of the global models while a trough approaches the
west coast of the United States. This steering pattern favors a
general northwest to north-northwest track during the next 5 days.
The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows closely
the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.3N 105.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 13.2N 105.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 14.5N 107.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 17.5N 109.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 23.2N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 26.0N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

蜜露

布蘭卡 從針眼變成了巨眼...

疑似把湧升流 乾空氣捲入..

上望已經下俢

這很像溫妮颱風的情形..溫妮當時是從中眼轉巨眼
風圈擴大.而影響台灣和中國